About: A spatial model of CoVID-19 transmission in England and Wales: early spread and peak timing

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An Entity of Type : schema:ScholarlyArticle, within Data Space : wasabi.inria.fr associated with source document(s)

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type	Academic Article research paper schema:ScholarlyArticle
isDefinedBy	Covid-on-the-Web dataset
title	A spatial model of CoVID-19 transmission in England and Wales: early spread and peak timing
Creator	Danon, Leon Brooks-Pollock, Ellen Keeling, Matt
source	MedRxiv
abstract	Background: An outbreak of a novel coronavirus, named CoVID-19, was first reported in China on 31 December 2019. As of 9 February 2020, cases have been reported in 25 countries, including probable cases of human-to-human transmission in England. Methods: We adapted an existing national-scale metapopulation model to capture the spread of CoVID-19 in England and Wales. We used 2011 census data to capture population sizes and population movement, together with parameter estimates from the current outbreak in China. Results: We predict that a CoVID-19 outbreak will peak 126 to 147 days (~4 months) after the start of person-to-person transmission in England and Wales in the absence of controls, assuming biological parameters remain unchanged. Therefore, if person-to-person transmission persists from February, we predict the epidemic peak would occur in June. The starting location has minimal impact on peak timing, and model stochasticity varies peak timing by 10 days. Incorporating realistic parameter uncertainty leads to estimates of peak time ranging from 78 days to 241 days after person-to-person transmission has been established. Seasonal changes in transmission rate substantially impact the timing and size of the epidemic peak, as well as the total attack rate. Discussion: We provide initial estimates of the potential course of CoVID-19 in England and Wales in the absence of control measures. These results can be refined with improved estimates of epidemiological parameters, and permit investigation of control measures and cost effectiveness analyses. Seasonal changes in transmission rate could shift the timing of the peak into winter months, which will have important implications for healthcare capacity planning.
has issue date	2020-02-14(xsd:dateTime)
bibo:doi	10.1101/2020.02.12.20022566
has license	medrxiv
sha1sum (hex)	05d99c07db59b6948e39bfa62c2cbbf62944059a
schema:url	https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.02.12.20022566
resource representing a document's title	A spatial model of CoVID-19 transmission in England and Wales: early spread and peak timing
resource representing a document's body	covid:05d99c07db59b6948e39bfa62c2cbbf62944059a#body_text
is schema:about of	named entity 'TIMING' named entity 'Wales' named entity 'SPREAD' named entity 'EARLY' named entity 'SPATIAL' named entity 'HAVE' named entity 'FEBRUARY' named entity 'ENGLAND' named entity 'COVID-19' named entity 'COVID-19' named entity 'MODEL OF' named entity 'WALES' named entity 'PEAK' named entity 'ENGLAND' named entity '2019' named entity 'NAMED' named entity 'TRANSMISSION' named entity 'NOVEL CORONAVIRUS' named entity 'REPORTED' named entity 'TRANSMISSION' named entity 'INCLUDING' named entity 'COUNTRIES' named entity 'HUMAN' named entity 'CHINA' named entity 'CASES' named entity 'DECEMBER' named entity 'PROBABLE' named entity 'OUTBREAK' covid:arg/05d99c07db59b6948e39bfa62c2cbbf62944059a named entity '9 February 2020' named entity 'CoVID-19' named entity 'spatial model' named entity 'Brighton' named entity 'CoVID' named entity 'epidemic curve' named entity 'gamma distribution' named entity 'London' named entity 'China' named entity 'epidemic' named entity 'SARS' named entity 'incubation period' named entity 'London' named entity 'Wuhan' named entity 'infection' named entity 'CC-BY-NC-ND 4.0' named entity 'incubation period' named entity 'peer-reviewed' named entity 'preprint' named entity 'England and Wales' named entity 'medRxiv' named entity 'epidemics' named entity 'epidemic' named entity 'attack rate' named entity 'epidemic' named entity 'Birmingham' named entity 'England and Wales' named entity 'prodromal' named entity 'China' named entity 'peer-reviewed' named entity 'coronavirus' named entity 'Cardiff' named entity 'epidemic' named entity 'Brighton' named entity 'CoVID' named entity 'epidemic' named entity 'attack rate' named entity 'preprint' named entity 'South East England' named entity 'preprint' named entity '95%' named entity 'medRxiv' named entity 'peer-reviewed' named entity 'preprint' named entity 'serial interval' named entity 'preprint' named entity 'China' named entity 'attack rate' named entity 'infection' named entity 'Sheffield' named entity 'England and Wales' named entity 'uniform distribution' named entity 'log-normal distribution' named entity 'epidemic'

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