About: Uncertainty and sensitivity analysis of the basic reproduction number of diphtheria: a case study of a Rohingya refugee camp in Bangladesh, November

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About: Uncertainty and sensitivity analysis of the basic reproduction number of diphtheria: a case study of a Rohingya refugee camp in Bangladesh, November–December 2017 Goto Sponge NotDistinct Permalink

An Entity of Type : schema:ScholarlyArticle, within Data Space : wasabi.inria.fr associated with source document(s)

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type	Academic Article research paper schema:ScholarlyArticle
isDefinedBy	Covid-on-the-Web dataset
has title	Uncertainty and sensitivity analysis of the basic reproduction number of diphtheria: a case study of a Rohingya refugee camp in Bangladesh, November–December 2017
Creator	Nishiura, Hiroshi Endo, Akira Matsuyama, Ryota Lee, Hyojung Tsuzuki, Shinya Yamaguchi, Takayuki Akhmetzhanov, Andrei
Source	Medline; PMC
abstract	BACKGROUND: A Rohingya refugee camp in Cox’s Bazar, Bangladesh experienced a large-scale diphtheria epidemic in 2017. The background information of previously immune fraction among refugees cannot be explicitly estimated, and thus we conducted an uncertainty analysis of the basic reproduction number, R(0). METHODS: A renewal process model was devised to estimate the R(0) and ascertainment rate of cases, and loss of susceptible individuals was modeled as one minus the sum of initially immune fraction and the fraction naturally infected during the epidemic. To account for the uncertainty of initially immune fraction, we employed a Latin Hypercube sampling (LHS) method. RESULTS: R(0) ranged from 4.7 to 14.8 with the median estimate at 7.2. R(0) was positively correlated with ascertainment rates. Sensitivity analysis indicated that R(0) would become smaller with greater variance of the generation time. DISCUSSION: Estimated R(0) was broadly consistent with published estimate from endemic data, indicating that the vaccination coverage of 86% has to be satisfied to prevent the epidemic by means of mass vaccination. LHS was particularly useful in the setting of a refugee camp in which the background health status is poorly quantified.
has issue date	2018-04-02(xsd:dateTime)
bibo:doi	10.7717/peerj.4583
bibo:pmid	29629244
has license	cc-by
sha1sum (hex)	13f8fe9cd4b06843fce134699ecc8b89cf6a2353
schema:url	https://doi.org/10.7717/peerj.4583
resource representing a document's title	Uncertainty and sensitivity analysis of the basic reproduction number of diphtheria: a case study of a Rohingya refugee camp in Bangladesh, November–December 2017
has PubMed Central identifier	PMC5885970
has PubMed identifier	29629244
schema:publication	PeerJ
resource representing a document's body	covid:13f8fe9cd4b06843fce134699ecc8b89cf6a2353#body_text
is schema:about of	named entity 'median' named entity 'loss' named entity 'fraction' named entity 'endemic' named entity 'Cox' named entity 'fraction' named entity 'refugee camp' named entity '14.8' named entity 'INDICATING' named entity 'MASS VACCINATION' named entity 'BASIC REPRODUCTION NUMBER' named entity 'SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS' named entity 'TO PREVENT' named entity 'INFECTED' named entity 'SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS' named entity 'IMMUNE' named entity 'MEANS' named entity 'DISCUSSION' named entity 'FRACTION' named entity 'SUM' named entity 'PREVIOUSLY' named entity 'ACCOUNT' named entity 'NUMBER OF' named entity 'SAMPLING' named entity 'ESTIMATED' named entity 'MODELED' named entity 'PUBLISHED' named entity 'VACCINATION COVERAGE' named entity 'UNCERTAINTY' named entity 'REFUGEE CAMP' named entity 'DIPHTHERIA' named entity 'BANGLADESH' named entity 'SATISFIED' named entity 'SMALLER' named entity 'INITIALLY' named entity 'ENDEMIC' named entity 'RESULTS' named entity 'SUSCEPTIBLE' named entity 'LARGE' named entity 'MEDIAN' named entity 'CASES' named entity 'HEALTH STATUS' named entity 'BASIC REPRODUCTION NUMBER' named entity 'INDIVIDUALS' named entity 'RATE' named entity 'EXPERIENCED' named entity 'POORLY' named entity 'EPIDEMIC' named entity 'PROCESS MODEL' named entity 'METHODS' named entity 'DIPHTHERIA' named entity 'POSITIVELY CORRELATED' named entity 'REFUGEE CAMP' named entity 'EMPLOYED' named entity 'LOSS OF' named entity 'INDICATED' named entity 'UNCERTAINTY' named entity 'MINUS' named entity 'GREATER' named entity 'INFORMATION' named entity 'METHOD' named entity 'REFUGEES' named entity 'LHS' named entity 'VARIANCE' named entity 'COX' named entity 'BACKGROUND' named entity 'GENERATION TIME' named entity 'ESTIMATE' named entity 'CONSISTENT WITH' named entity 'USEFUL' named entity 'LATIN' named entity '7.2' named entity 'DATA' named entity 'SETTING' named entity '27S'

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