About: Estimating the true (population) infection rate for COVID-19: A Backcasting Approach with Monte Carlo Methods

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An Entity of Type : schema:ScholarlyArticle, within Data Space : wasabi.inria.fr associated with source document(s)

Attributes	Values
type	Academic Article research paper schema:ScholarlyArticle
isDefinedBy	Covid-on-the-Web dataset
has title	Estimating the true (population) infection rate for COVID-19: A Backcasting Approach with Monte Carlo Methods
Creator	Grafton, R Kompas, Tom Phipps, Steven
Source	MedRxiv
abstract	Differences in COVID-19 testing and tracing across countries, as well as changes in testing within each country over time, make it difficult to estimate the true (population) infection rate based on the confirmed number of cases obtained through RNA viral testing. We applied a backcasting approach, coupled with Monte Carlo methods, to estimate a distribution for the true (population) cumulative number of infections (infected and recovered) for 15 countries where reliable data are available. We find a positive relationship between the testing rate per 1,000 people and the implied true detection rate of COVID-19, and a negative relationship between the proportion who test positive and the implied true detection rate. Our estimates suggest that the true number of people infected across our sample of 15 developed countries is 18.2 (5-95% CI: 11.9-39.0) times greater than the reported number of cases. In individual countries, the true number of cases exceeds the reported figure by factors that range from 1.7 (5-95% CI: 1.1-3.6) for Australia to 35.6 (5-95% CI: 23.2-76.3) for Belgium.
has issue date	2020-05-18(xsd:dateTime)
bibo:doi	10.1101/2020.05.12.20098889
has license	medrxiv
sha1sum (hex)	1a7dea082d47287761c762ea4aa7e4cc0b534ef5
schema:url	https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.05.12.20098889
resource representing a document's title	Estimating the true (population) infection rate for COVID-19: A Backcasting Approach with Monte Carlo Methods
resource representing a document's body	covid:1a7dea082d47287761c762ea4aa7e4cc0b534ef5#body_text
is schema:about of	named entity 'population' named entity 'sample' named entity 'number' named entity '95% CI' named entity 'estimate' named entity 'Monte Carlo' named entity 'COVID-19' named entity 'TIMES' named entity 'CUMULATIVE' named entity 'OUR' named entity 'COUNTRIES' named entity 'INFECTION RATE' named entity 'CONFIRMED' named entity 'COUNTRY' named entity 'RATE' named entity 'GREATER THAN' named entity 'AVAILABLE' named entity 'ACROSS' named entity 'RECOVERED' named entity 'APPLIED' named entity 'FIGURE' named entity 'test' named entity 'cases' named entity 'cumulative' named entity 'Belgium' named entity 'times' named entity 'estimates' named entity 'data' named entity 'testing' named entity 'COVID-19' named entity 'negative relationship' named entity 'Belgium' named entity 'testing rate' named entity 'viral testing' named entity 'Monte Carlo methods' named entity 'COVID-19' named entity 'France' named entity 'infection rate' named entity 'infection rate' named entity 'infection' named entity 'testing for the virus' named entity 'COVID-19' named entity 'sero' named entity 'reported cases' named entity 'March 2020' named entity 'stratified random sample' named entity 'virus' named entity 'coronavirus pandemic' named entity 'IFR' named entity 'infection' named entity 'fatality rate' named entity 'tested for COVID-19' named entity 'backcasting' named entity 'fatality rate' named entity 'positive relationship' named entity 'World Health Organisation' named entity 'COVID-19 pandemic in Singapore' named entity 'backcasting' named entity 'infection' named entity 'backcasting' named entity 'Germany' named entity 'incubation period' named entity 'serological testing' named entity 'mortality rates' named entity 'serological testing' named entity 'Germany' named entity 'European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control' named entity 'backcasting' named entity 'infection fatality rate' named entity 'Australia' named entity 'sputum' named entity 'asymptomatic' named entity 'confidence intervals' named entity '95% CI' named entity 'backcasting' named entity 'epidemiological models' named entity 'infection' named entity 'collected data' named entity 'epidemiological models' named entity 'Gamma distribution' named entity 'epidemiological model' named entity 'coefficients of variation' named entity 'confidence intervals'

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