About: Short-term forecasts and long-term mitigation evaluations for the COVID-19 epidemic in Hubei Province, China

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About: Short-term forecasts and long-term mitigation evaluations for the COVID-19 epidemic in Hubei Province, China Goto Sponge NotDistinct Permalink

An Entity of Type : schema:ScholarlyArticle, within Data Space : wasabi.inria.fr associated with source document(s)

Attributes	Values
type	Academic Article research paper schema:ScholarlyArticle
isDefinedBy	Covid-on-the-Web dataset
has title	Short-term forecasts and long-term mitigation evaluations for the COVID-19 epidemic in Hubei Province, China
Creator	Guo, Xiaolong Cohnstaedt, Lee Scoglio, Caterina Vajdi, Aram Wu, Hongyu Yang, Qihui Yi, Chunlin
Source	MedRxiv
abstract	As an emerging infectious disease, the 2019 coronavirus disease (COVID-19) has developed into a global pandemic. During the initial spreading of the virus in China, we demonstrated the ensemble Kalman filter performed well as a short-term predictor of the daily cases reported in Wuhan City. Second, we used an individual-level network-based model to reconstruct the epidemic dynamics in Hubei Province at its early stage and examine the effectiveness of non-pharmaceutical interventions on the epidemic spreading with various scenarios. Our simulation results show that without continued control measures, the epidemic in Hubei Province could have become persistent. Only by continuing to decrease the infection rate through 1) protective measures and 2) social distancing can the actual epidemic trajectory that happened in Hubei Province be reconstructed in simulation. Finally, we simulate the COVID-19 transmission with non-Markovian processes and show how these models produce different epidemic trajectories, compared to those obtained with Markov processes. Since recent studies show that COVID-19 epidemiological parameters do not follow exponential distributions leading to Markov processes, future works need to focus on non-Markovian models to better capture the COVID-19 spreading trajectories. In addition, shortening the infectious period via early case identification and isolation can slow the epidemic spreading significantly.
has issue date	2020-03-30(xsd:dateTime)
bibo:doi	10.1101/2020.03.27.20045625
has license	medrxiv
sha1sum (hex)	26a2d4b805cdb48bccb4d640da82fa4c4d15c7c4
schema:url	https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.03.27.20045625
resource representing a document's title	Short-term forecasts and long-term mitigation evaluations for the COVID-19 epidemic in Hubei Province, China
resource representing a document's body	covid:26a2d4b805cdb48bccb4d640da82fa4c4d15c7c4#body_text
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