About: Mechanistic modelling of coronavirus infections and the impact of confined neighbourhoods on a short time scale

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An Entity of Type : schema:ScholarlyArticle, within Data Space : wasabi.inria.fr associated with source document(s)

Attributes	Values
type	Academic Article research paper schema:ScholarlyArticle
isDefinedBy	Covid-on-the-Web dataset
has title	Mechanistic modelling of coronavirus infections and the impact of confined neighbourhoods on a short time scale
Creator	Ansari, Ali Bonsall, Michael Ahmed, Danish Ahmed, Naveed D@gust, Ahmed Dingle, Kamaludin Kw,
Source	MedRxiv
abstract	Background: To mitigate the spread of the COVID-19 coronavirus, some countries have adopted more stringent non-pharmaceutical interventions in contrast to those widely used (for e.g. the state of Kuwait). In addition to standard practices such as enforcing curfews, social distancing, and closure of non-essential service industries, other non-conventional policies such as the total confinement of highly populated areas has also been implemented. Methods: In this paper, we model the movement of a host population using a mechanistic approach based on random walks, which are either diffusive or super-diffusive. Infections are realised through a contact process, whereby a susceptible host may be infected if in close spatial proximity of the infectious host. Our focus is only on the short-time scale prior to the infectious period, so that no further transmission is assumed. Results: We find that the level of infection depends heavily on the population dynamics, and increases in the case of slow population diffusion, but remains stable for a high or super-diffusive population. Also, we find that the confinement of homogeneous or overcrowded sub-populations has minimal impact in the short term. Conclusions: Our results indicate that on a short time scale, confinement restrictions or complete lock down of whole residential areas may not be effective. Finally, we discuss the possible implications of our findings for total confinement in the context of the current situation in Kuwait.
has issue date	2020-07-30(xsd:dateTime)
bibo:doi	10.1101/2020.07.28.20163634
has license	medrxiv
sha1sum (hex)	6c8c1c78a2c1ce5f3d42bbcb7ed4afb03ded78d7
schema:url	https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.07.28.20163634
resource representing a document's title	Mechanistic modelling of coronavirus infections and the impact of confined neighbourhoods on a short time scale
resource representing a document's body	covid:6c8c1c78a2c1ce5f3d42bbcb7ed4afb03ded78d7#body_text
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