About: Total COVID-19 Mortality in Italy: Excess Mortality and Age Dependence through Time-Series Analysis

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About: Total COVID-19 Mortality in Italy: Excess Mortality and Age Dependence through Time-Series Analysis Goto Sponge NotDistinct Permalink

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Attributes	Values
type	Academic Article research paper schema:ScholarlyArticle
isDefinedBy	Covid-on-the-Web dataset
title	Total COVID-19 Mortality in Italy: Excess Mortality and Age Dependence through Time-Series Analysis
Creator	Böhm, Vanessa Ferraro, Simone Modi, Chirag Seljak, Uroš Stein, George
source	MedRxiv
abstract	We perform a counterfactual time series analysis using two different Data Science methods applied to 2020 mortality data reported from towns in Italy, with data from the previous five years as control. We find an excess mortality that is correlated in time with the COVID-19 reported death rate time series. Our analysis shows good agreement with reported COVID-19 mortality for age<70 years, but an excess in total mortality increasing with age above 70 years, suggesting there is a large population of predominantly old people missing from the official fatality statistics. We estimate that the number of COVID-19 deaths in Italy is 52,000 ± 2000 as of April 18 2020, more than a factor of 2 higher than the official number. The Population Fatality Rate (PFR) has reached 0.22% in the most affected region of Lombardia and 0.57% in the most affected province of Bergamo,which constitutes a lower bound to the Infection Fatality Rate (IFR). We estimate PFR as a function of age, finding a steep age dependence: in Lombardia (Bergamo province) 0.6% (1.7%) of the total population in age group 70-79 died, 1.6% (4.6%) in age group 80-89, and 3.41% (10.2%) in the age group above 90. We combine this with the Test Positivity Rate to estimate the lower bound of 0.84% on the IFR for Lombardia. We observe IFR to trace the Yearly Mortality Rate (YMR) above 60 years, which can be used to estimate the IFR for other regions in the world. We predict an IFR lower bound of 0.5% for NYC and 26% of total COVID-19 mortality arising from the population below 65 years, in agreement with the existing data and several times higher than Lombardia. Combining PFR with the Princess Diamond cruise ship IFR for ages above 70 we estimate the infection rates(IR) of regions in Italy, which peak in Lombardia at 23% (12%-41%, 95% c.l.), and for provinces in Bergamo at 67% (33%-100%, 95% c.l.). This suggests that Bergamo may have reached herd immunity, and that the number of infected people greatly exceeds the number of positive tests, by a factor of 35 in Lombardia.
has issue date	2020-04-20(xsd:dateTime)
bibo:doi	10.1101/2020.04.15.20067074
has license	medrxiv
sha1sum (hex)	78576bc0f9f19b279a0cfd0505f374cba5bb7963
schema:url	https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.04.15.20067074
resource representing a document's title	Total COVID-19 Mortality in Italy: Excess Mortality and Age Dependence through Time-Series Analysis
resource representing a document's body	covid:78576bc0f9f19b279a0cfd0505f374cba5bb7963#body_text
is schema:about of	named entity 'reached' named entity 'range' named entity 'estimate' named entity 'higher' named entity 'age' named entity 'towns' named entity 'group' covid:arg/78576bc0f9f19b279a0cfd0505f374cba5bb7963 named entity 'Italy' named entity 'group' named entity 'estimate' named entity 'steep' named entity 'excess mortality' named entity 'Bergamo' named entity 'dependent' named entity 'Fatality' named entity 'skewed' named entity 'Italy' named entity 'Bergamo province' named entity 'Italy' named entity 'IFR' named entity 'April 11' named entity 'Italy' named entity 'Fatality Rate' named entity 'excess mortality' named entity 'Lombardia' named entity 'province of Bergamo' named entity 'Infection Fatality Rate' named entity 'time series' named entity 'Bergamo' named entity 'Italy' named entity 'IFR' named entity 'IFR' named entity 'infection rate' named entity 'medRxiv' named entity 'IFR' named entity 'Italy' named entity 'statistical analysis' named entity 'province of Bergamo' named entity 'excess mortality' named entity 'time series' named entity 'public health' named entity 'dashed' named entity 'tested for COVID-19' named entity 'COVID-19 pandemic' named entity 'excess deaths' named entity 'regions of Italy' named entity 'COVID' named entity 'COVID-19' named entity 'IFR' named entity 'upper bound' named entity 'death rate' named entity 'Diamond Princess' named entity 'death rate' named entity 'Infection Rate' named entity 'April 11' named entity 'IFR' named entity 'COVID-19' named entity 'IFR' named entity 'IFR' named entity 'flu outbreak' named entity 'historical data' named entity 'COVID' named entity 'CC-BY-NC-ND 4.0' named entity 'mortality rates' named entity 'COVID-19' named entity 'Italy' named entity 'covariance matrix' named entity 'Excess mortality' named entity 'IFR' named entity 'infection fatality rate' named entity 'Gaussian Process' named entity 'province of Bergamo' named entity 'medRxiv' named entity 'Infection Fatality Rate' named entity 'IFR' named entity 'IFR' named entity 'SCM' named entity '1-sigma' named entity 'coronavirus' named entity 'peer-reviewed'

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