About: Estimation of the reproductive number of novel coronavirus (COVID-19) and the probable outbreak size on the Diamond Princess cruise ship: A data-driven analysis

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About: Estimation of the reproductive number of novel coronavirus (COVID-19) and the probable outbreak size on the Diamond Princess cruise ship: A data-driven analysis Goto Sponge NotDistinct Permalink

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Attributes	Values
type	Academic Article research paper schema:ScholarlyArticle
isDefinedBy	Covid-on-the-Web dataset
has title	Estimation of the reproductive number of novel coronavirus (COVID-19) and the probable outbreak size on the Diamond Princess cruise ship: A data-driven analysis
Creator	Zhang, Sheng Chen, Dechang Yu, Wenbo Lin, Zhaofen Diao, Mengyuan Pei, Lei
Source	Elsevier; Medline; PMC
abstract	BACKGROUNDS: Up to February 16, 2020, 355 cases have been confirmed as having COVID-19 infection on the Diamond Princess cruise ship. It is of crucial importance to estimate the reproductive number (R0) of the novel virus in the early stage of outbreak and make a prediction of daily new cases on the ship. METHOD: We fitted the reported serial interval (mean and standard deviation) with a gamma distribution and applied “earlyR” package in R to estimate the R0 in the early stage of COVID-19 outbreak. We applied “projections” package in R to simulate the plausible cumulative epidemic trajectories and future daily incidence by fitting the data of existing daily incidence, a serial interval distribution, and the estimated R0 into a model based on the assumption that daily incidence obeys approximately Poisson distribution determined by daily infectiousness. RESULTS: The Maximum-Likelihood (ML) value of R0 was 2.28 for COVID-19 outbreak at the early stage on the ship. The median with 95% confidence interval (CI) of R0 values was 2.28 (2.06–2.52) estimated by the bootstrap resampling method. The probable number of new cases for the next ten days would gradually increase, and the estimated cumulative cases would reach 1514 (1384–1656) at the tenth day in the future. However, if R0 value was reduced by 25% and 50%, the estimated total number of cumulative cases would be reduced to 1081 (981–1177) and 758 (697–817), respectively. CONCLUSION: The median with 95% CI of R0 of COVID-19 was about 2.28 (2.06–2.52) during the early stage experienced on the Diamond Princess cruise ship. The future daily incidence and probable outbreak size is largely dependent on the change of R0. Unless strict infection management and control are taken, our findings indicate the potential of COVID-19 to cause greater outbreak on the ship.
has issue date	2020-02-22(xsd:dateTime)
bibo:doi	10.1016/j.ijid.2020.02.033
bibo:pmid	32097725
has license	no-cc
sha1sum (hex)	a22b1d0fb120a6bb09cb1bee93dbb47211fc4e81
schema:url	https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijid.2020.02.033
resource representing a document's title	Estimation of the reproductive number of novel coronavirus (COVID-19) and the probable outbreak size on the Diamond Princess cruise ship: A data-driven analysis
has PubMed Central identifier	PMC7110591
has PubMed identifier	32097725
schema:publication	Int J Infect Dis
resource representing a document's body	covid:a22b1d0fb120a6bb09cb1bee93dbb47211fc4e81#body_text
is schema:about of	named entity '50%' named entity 'COVID-19 INFECTION' named entity 'CONFIDENCE INTERVAL' named entity 'LARGELY' named entity 'FITTED' named entity 'PACKAGE' named entity 'LIKELIHOOD' named entity 'INFECTIOUSNESS' named entity 'APPLIED' named entity 'VALUES' named entity 'FEBRUARY' named entity 'DIAMOND' named entity 'INCREASE' named entity 'DISTRIBUTION' named entity 'OUR' named entity 'PREDICTION' covid:arg/a22b1d0fb120a6bb09cb1bee93dbb47211fc4e81 named entity '2.06' named entity 'Poisson' named entity 'Diamond Princess cruise ship' named entity 'COVID-19' named entity 'COVID-19 outbreak' named entity 'infection' named entity 'number of new cases' named entity 'epidemic' named entity 'COVID-19' named entity 'nucleic acid testing' named entity 'Hong Kong' named entity 'Wuhan' named entity '95% CI' named entity 'sample size' named entity 'People's Republic of China' named entity 'Japan' named entity 'serial interval' named entity 'serial interval' named entity 'zoonotic infection' named entity 'February 16, 2020' named entity 'January 20' named entity 'World Health Organization' named entity '3.51' named entity 'epidemic' named entity 'China' named entity '2.52' named entity 'epidemic' named entity 'epidemic' named entity 'histogram' named entity 'serial interval' named entity 'COVID-19' named entity 'Princess cruise ship' named entity 'COVID' named entity 'COVID' named entity '2.06' named entity 'COVID-19' named entity 'standard deviation' named entity 'asymptomatic' named entity 'transmissibility' named entity 'transmissibility' named entity 'transmissibility' named entity 'Wuhan' named entity 'Poisson distribution' named entity 'disease transmission' named entity '2.06' named entity 'cumulative incidence' named entity 'PMF' named entity 'Hong Kong' named entity 'Princess cruise ship' named entity 'infection' named entity 'China' named entity 'COVID' named entity 'transmissibility' named entity 'infection' named entity 'COVID-19 outbreak' named entity 'Princess cruise ship' named entity 'Hong Kong' named entity 'serial interval' named entity 'China'

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