About: An Ensemble Trajectory Method for Real-Time Modeling and Prediction of Unfolding Epidemics: Analysis of the 2005 Marburg Fever Outbreak in Angola

Facets (new session)
Description
Metadata
Settings
- owl:sameAs
- Inference Rule:

About: An Ensemble Trajectory Method for Real-Time Modeling and Prediction of Unfolding Epidemics: Analysis of the 2005 Marburg Fever Outbreak in Angola Goto Sponge NotDistinct Permalink

An Entity of Type : schema:ScholarlyArticle, within Data Space : wasabi.inria.fr associated with source document(s)

Attributes	Values
type	Academic Article research paper schema:ScholarlyArticle
isDefinedBy	Covid-on-the-Web dataset
has title	An Ensemble Trajectory Method for Real-Time Modeling and Prediction of Unfolding Epidemics: Analysis of the 2005 Marburg Fever Outbreak in Angola
Creator	Bettencourt, Luís, M
Source	PMC
abstract	We propose a new methodology for the modeling and real time prediction of the course of unfolding epidemic outbreaks. The method posits a class of standard epidemic models and explores uncertainty in empirical data to set up a family of possible outbreak trajectories that span the probability distribution of models parameters and initial conditions. A genetic algorithm is used to estimate likely trajectories consistent with the data and reconstruct the probability distribution of model parameters. In this way the ensemble of trajectories allows for temporal extrapolation to produce estimates of future cases and deaths, with quantified levels of uncertainty. We apply this methodology to an outbreak of Marburg hemorrhagic fever in Angola during 2005 in order to estimate disease epidemiological parameters and assess the effects of interventions. Data for cases and deaths was compiled from World Health Organization as the epidemic unfolded. We describe the outbreak through a standard epidemic model used in the past for Ebola, a closely related viral pathogen. The application of our method allows us to make quantitative prognostics as the outbreak unfolds for the expected time to the end of the epidemic and final numbers of cases and fatalities, which were eventually confirmed. We provided a real time analysis of the effects of intervention and possible under reporting and place bounds on population movements necessary to guarantee that the epidemic did not regain momentum.
has issue date	2009-01-01(xsd:dateTime)
bibo:doi	10.1007/978-90-481-2313-1_7
has license	no-cc
sha1sum (hex)	abfe38c8361c5ec4aeec39a59fc234dfe55ff610
schema:url	https://doi.org/10.1007/978-90-481-2313-1_7
resource representing a document's title	An Ensemble Trajectory Method for Real-Time Modeling and Prediction of Unfolding Epidemics: Analysis of the 2005 Marburg Fever Outbreak in Angola
has PubMed Central identifier	PMC7121466
schema:publication	Mathematical and Statistical Estimation Approaches in Epidemiology
resource representing a document's body	covid:abfe38c8361c5ec4aeec39a59fc234dfe55ff610#body_text
is schema:about of	named entity 'ANGOLA' named entity 'hemorrhagic fever' named entity 'levels' named entity 'outbreak' named entity 'Method' named entity 'Outbreak' named entity 'Trajectory' named entity 'A CLASS' named entity 'ANGOLA' named entity 'PARAMETERS' named entity 'SPAN' named entity 'STANDARD' named entity 'TO PRODUCE' named entity 'MODEL PARAMETERS' named entity 'FAMILY' named entity 'FINAL' named entity 'MARBURG HEMORRHAGIC FEVER' named entity 'FUTURE' named entity 'END' named entity 'OUTBREAKS' named entity 'ESTIMATE' named entity 'MODELING' named entity 'IN THE PAST' named entity 'NECESSARY' named entity 'LEVELS' named entity 'INITIAL CONDITIONS' named entity 'MAKE' named entity 'NUMBERS' named entity 'APPLICATION' named entity 'EFFECTS' named entity 'USED' named entity 'RECONSTRUCT' named entity 'DISEASE' named entity 'CONFIRMED' named entity 'UNCERTAINTY' named entity 'GENETIC ALGORITHM' named entity 'NEW' named entity 'ORDER' named entity 'APPLY' named entity 'DATA' named entity 'COURSE' named entity 'EBOLA' named entity 'DID' named entity 'POSSIBLE' named entity 'METHOD' named entity 'METHOD' named entity 'PREDICTION' named entity 'MARBURG FEVER' named entity 'PROVIDED' named entity 'DEATHS' named entity 'MOVEMENTS' named entity 'LIKELY' named entity 'QUANTITATIVE' named entity 'PROBABILITY DISTRIBUTION' named entity 'BOUNDS' named entity 'MODELS' named entity 'UNFOLDING' named entity 'RELATED' named entity 'DESCRIBE' named entity 'EPIDEMIOLOGICAL' named entity 'MOMENTUM' named entity 'ESTIMATES' named entity 'CASES' named entity 'REGAIN' named entity 'REPORTING' named entity 'PLACE' named entity 'WAY' named entity 'EMPIRICAL DATA' named entity 'OUTBREAK' named entity 'UNFOLDING' named entity 'ENSEMBLE' named entity 'MODELING' named entity 'REAL-TIME' named entity 'ANALYSIS' named entity 'EPIDEMICS' named entity 'TEMPORAL' named entity 'POPULATION' named entity 'WORLD HEALTH ORGANIZATION' named entity 'EPIDEMIC' named entity 'PREDICTION' named entity 'UNFOLDED' named entity 'ANALYSIS'

Faceted Search & Find service v1.13.91 as of Mar 24 2020

Alternative Linked Data Documents: Sponger | ODE Content Formats:

RDF

ODATA

Microdata

About

OpenLink Virtuoso version 07.20.3229 as of Jul 10 2020, on Linux (x86_64-pc-linux-gnu), Single-Server Edition (94 GB total memory)
Data on this page belongs to its respective rights holders.
Virtuoso Faceted Browser Copyright © 2009-2024 OpenLink Software