About: Some simple rules for estimating reproduction numbers in the presence of reservoir exposure or imported cases

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About: Some simple rules for estimating reproduction numbers in the presence of reservoir exposure or imported cases Goto Sponge NotDistinct Permalink

An Entity of Type : schema:ScholarlyArticle, within Data Space : wasabi.inria.fr associated with source document(s)

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type	Academic Article research paper schema:ScholarlyArticle
isDefinedBy	Covid-on-the-Web dataset
has title	Some simple rules for estimating reproduction numbers in the presence of reservoir exposure or imported cases
Creator	Glass, Kathryn Mclure, Angus
Source	Elsevier; Medline; PMC
abstract	Abstract For many diseases, the basic reproduction number ( R 0 ) is a threshold parameter for disease extinction or survival in isolated populations. However no human population is fully isolated from other human or animal populations. We use compartmental models to derive simple rules for the basic reproduction number in populations where an endemic disease is sustained by a combination of local transmission within the population and exposure from some other source: either a reservoir exposure or imported cases. We introduce the idea of a reservoir-driven or importation-driven disease: diseases that would become extinct in the population of interest without reservoir exposure or imported cases (since R 0 < 1 ), but nevertheless may be sufficiently transmissible that many or most infections are acquired from humans in that population. We show that in the simplest case, R 0 < 1 if and only if the proportion of infections acquired from the external source exceeds the disease prevalence and explore how population heterogeneity and the interactions of multiple strains affect this rule. We apply these rules in two case studies of Clostridium difficile infection and colonisation: C. difficile in the hospital setting accounting for imported cases, and C. difficile in the general human population accounting for exposure to animal reservoirs. We demonstrate that even the hospital-adapted, highly-transmissible NAP1/RT027 strain of C. difficile had a reproduction number <1 in a landmark study of hospitalised patients and therefore was sustained by colonised and infected admissions to the study hospital. We argue that C. difficile should be considered reservoir-driven if as little as 13.0% of transmission can be attributed to animal reservoirs.
has issue date	2020-04-15(xsd:dateTime)
bibo:doi	10.1016/j.tpb.2020.04.002
bibo:pmid	32304644
has license	els-covid
sha1sum (hex)	c8d9a4d152c7d7dcbc69abe7427c586a42cda661
schema:url	https://doi.org/10.1016/j.tpb.2020.04.002
resource representing a document's title	Some simple rules for estimating reproduction numbers in the presence of reservoir exposure or imported cases
has PubMed Central identifier	PMC7159883
has PubMed identifier	32304644
schema:publication	Theor Popul Biol
resource representing a document's body	covid:c8d9a4d152c7d7dcbc69abe7427c586a42cda661#body_text
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