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About:
The COVID-19 outbreak in Sichuan, China: epidemiology and impact of interventions
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wasabi.inria.fr
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Type:
Academic Article
research paper
schema:ScholarlyArticle
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type
Academic Article
research paper
schema:ScholarlyArticle
isDefinedBy
Covid-on-the-Web dataset
has title
The COVID-19 outbreak in Sichuan, China: epidemiology and impact of interventions
Creator
Bento, Ana
Zhang, Wei
Yu, Hongjie
Zhou, Tao
Liu, Quan-Hui
Yang, Kexin
Vespignani, Alessandro
Ajelli, Marco
Merler, Stefano
Zhang, Hang
Lv, Jiancheng
Yang, Xiaohan
Source
MedRxiv
abstract
In January 2020, a COVID19 outbreak was detected in Sichuan Province of China. The aim of this work is to characterize the epidemiology of the Sichuan outbreak and estimate the impact of the performed interventions. We analyzed patient records for all laboratory confirmed cases reported in the province for the period of January 21 to March 16, 2020. To estimate the basic and daily reproduction numbers, we used a Bayesian framework. In addition, we estimate the number of cases averted by the implemented control strategies. The outbreak resulted in 539 confirmed cases, lasted less than two months, and no further local transmission was detected after February 27. The median age of local cases was 8 years older than that of imported cases. Severity of symptoms increased with age. We estimated R0 at 2.4 (95% CI: 1.6-3.7). The epidemic was self sustained for about 3 weeks before going below the epidemic threshold 3 days after the declaration of a public health emergency by Sichuan authorities. Our findings indicate that, were the control measures be adopted four weeks later, the epidemic could have lasted 49 days longer (95%CI: 31-68 days), causing 9,216 (95%CI: 1,317-25,545) more cases and possibly overwhelming Sichuan healthcare system.
has issue date
2020-07-21
(
xsd:dateTime
)
bibo:doi
10.1101/2020.07.20.20157602
has license
medrxiv
sha1sum (hex)
eb81e7da582d4d34afed35d18651986c2b827089
schema:url
https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.07.20.20157602
resource representing a document's title
The COVID-19 outbreak in Sichuan, China: epidemiology and impact of interventions
resource representing a document's body
covid:eb81e7da582d4d34afed35d18651986c2b827089#body_text
is
schema:about
of
named entity 'local'
named entity 'MONTHS'
named entity 'AIM'
named entity 'AGE'
named entity 'ANALYZED'
named entity 'CONTROL'
named entity 'DAYS'
named entity 'PROVINCE'
named entity 'PATIENT RECORDS'
named entity 'NUMBER OF'
named entity 'performed'
named entity 'estimate'
named entity 'The'
named entity 'threshold'
named entity 'days'
named entity 'Sichuan'
named entity 'Bayesian framework'
named entity 'public health emergency'
named entity 'local transmission'
named entity 'Sichuan'
named entity 'age'
named entity 'reproduction number'
named entity 'reproduction number'
named entity 'COVID'
named entity 'January 27'
named entity 'January 24'
named entity 'time interval'
named entity 'reproduction number'
named entity 'Sichuan'
named entity 'public health emergency'
named entity 'Sichuan'
named entity 'Hubei'
named entity 'epidemic'
named entity 'reproductive number'
named entity 'transport hub'
named entity 'affected areas'
named entity 'Chinese provinces'
named entity '1.6'
named entity 'SARS-CoV-2'
named entity 'respiratory failure'
named entity 'public health emergency'
named entity 'epidemic'
named entity 'COVID-19 outbreak'
named entity 'reproduction number'
named entity 'gamma distribution'
named entity 'Sichuan'
named entity 'epidemic'
named entity 'quarantine'
named entity 'epidemic'
named entity '95% CI'
named entity 'medRxiv'
named entity 'reproduction number'
named entity 'median age'
named entity 'COVID-19 outbreak'
named entity 'Tab. 1'
named entity 'local transmission'
named entity 'epidemic spread'
named entity 'COVID-19'
named entity 'pneumonia'
named entity 'epidemic'
named entity 'epidemics'
named entity 'epidemiological'
named entity 'CC-BY-NC-ND 4.0'
named entity 'public health emergency'
named entity 'Tab. 1'
named entity 'Wuhan'
named entity 'provinces of China'
named entity 'Tab. 1'
named entity 'Sichuan'
named entity 'Sichuan'
named entity 'symptom'
named entity 'Wuhan'
named entity 'ICU'
named entity 'epidemics'
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