About: A Simple Early Warning Signal for COVID-19

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type	Academic Article research paper schema:ScholarlyArticle
isDefinedBy	Covid-on-the-Web dataset
title	A Simple Early Warning Signal for COVID-19
Creator	Hernandez-Suarez, Carlos Ceriani, Lidia Verme, Paolo
source	MedRxiv
abstract	The paper provides some initial evidence that daily mortality rates (for any cause) by municipality or province can be used as a statistically reliable predictor of looming COVID-19 crises. Using recently published deaths figures for 1,689 Italian municipalities, we estimate the growth in daily mortality rates between the period 2015-2019 and 2020 by province. All provinces that experienced a major COVID-19 shock in mid-March 2020 had increases in mortality rates of 100% or above already in early February 2020. This increase was particularly strong for males and older people, two recognizable features of COVID-19. Using a panel fixed effect model, we show that the association between these early increases in mortality for any cause and the March 2020 COVID-19 shock is strong and significant. We conclude that the growth in mortality rates can be used as a statistically reliable predictor of COVID-19 crises.
has issue date	2020-05-05(xsd:dateTime)
bibo:doi	10.1101/2020.04.28.20083261
has license	medrxiv
sha1sum (hex)	fb290a740994643880b6152b11b01fc81ec1f10c
schema:url	https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.04.28.20083261
resource representing a document's title	A Simple Early Warning Signal for COVID-19
resource representing a document's body	covid:fb290a740994643880b6152b11b01fc81ec1f10c#body_text
is schema:about of	named entity 'COVID-19' named entity 'Signal' named entity 'COVID-19' named entity 'emergency rooms' named entity 'Italy' »more»

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