About: Multi-chain Fudan-CCDC model for COVID-19 -- a revisit to Singapore's case

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An Entity of Type : schema:ScholarlyArticle, within Data Space : wasabi.inria.fr associated with source document(s)

Attributes	Values
type	Academic Article research paper schema:ScholarlyArticle
isDefinedBy	Covid-on-the-Web dataset
title	Multi-chain Fudan-CCDC model for COVID-19 -- a revisit to Singapore's case
Creator	Cheng, Jin Ye, Ling Chen, Wenbin Yan, Yue Luo, Xinyue Pan, Hanshuang Shao, Nian Wang, Shufen
source	MedRxiv
abstract	Background: COVID-19 has been impacting on the whole world critically and constantly since late December 2019. Rapidly increasing infections has raised intense worldwide attention. How to model the evolution of COVID-19 effectively and efficiently is of great significance for prevention and control. Methods: We propose the multi-chain Fudan-CCDC model based on the original single-chain model in [8] to describe the evolution of COVID-19 in Singapore. Multi-chains can be considered as the superposition of several single chains with different characteristics. We identify parameters of models by minimizing the penalty function. Results: The numerical simulation results exhibit the multi-chain model performs well on data fitting. Though unsteady the increments are, they could still fall within the range of 25% fluctuation from simulation results. It is predicted by multi-chain models that Singapore are experiencing a nonnegligible risk of explosive outbreak, thus stronger measures are urgently needed to contain the epidemic. Conclusion: The multi-chain Fudan-CCDC model provides an effective way to early detect the appearance of imported infectors and super spreaders and forecast a second outbreak. It can also explain the data in those countries where the single-chain model shows deviation from the data.
has issue date	2020-04-17(xsd:dateTime)
bibo:doi	10.1101/2020.04.13.20063792
has license	medrxiv
sha1sum (hex)	0eb661c4fd71054e081ec1c357142e91b908fca9
schema:url	https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.04.13.20063792
resource representing a document's title	Multi-chain Fudan-CCDC model for COVID-19 -- a revisit to Singapore's case
resource representing a document's body	covid:0eb661c4fd71054e081ec1c357142e91b908fca9#body_text
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