About: Impact of the accuracy of case-based surveillance data on the estimation of time-varying reproduction numbers

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About: Impact of the accuracy of case-based surveillance data on the estimation of time-varying reproduction numbers Goto Sponge NotDistinct Permalink

An Entity of Type : schema:ScholarlyArticle, within Data Space : wasabi.inria.fr associated with source document(s)

Attributes	Values
type	Academic Article research paper schema:ScholarlyArticle
isDefinedBy	Covid-on-the-Web dataset
has title	Impact of the accuracy of case-based surveillance data on the estimation of time-varying reproduction numbers
Creator	Moreno, Yamir Tizzoni, Michele Aleta, Alberto Starnini, Michele
Source	MedRxiv
abstract	Studies aimed at characterizing the evolution of COVID-19 disease often rely on case-based surveillance data publicly released by health authorities, that can be incomplete and prone to errors. Here, we quantify the biases caused by the use of inaccurate data in the estimation of the Time-Varying Reproduction Number R(t). By focusing on Italy and Spain, two of the hardest-hit countries in Europe and worldwide, we show that if the symptoms' onset time-series is inferred from the notification date series, the R(t) curve cannot capture nor describe accurately the early dynamics of the epidemic. Furthermore, the effectiveness of the containment measures that were implemented, such as national lockdowns, can be properly evaluated only when R(t) is estimated using the real time-series of dates of symptoms' onset. Our findings show that extreme care should be taken when a pivotal quantity like R(t) is used to make decisions and to evaluate different alternatives.
has issue date	2020-06-28(xsd:dateTime)
bibo:doi	10.1101/2020.06.26.20140871
has license	medrxiv
sha1sum (hex)	0f46b323d2a18a7b775ee080822f0b56edcbe40e
schema:url	https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.06.26.20140871
resource representing a document's title	Impact of the accuracy of case-based surveillance data on the estimation of time-varying reproduction numbers
resource representing a document's body	covid:0f46b323d2a18a7b775ee080822f0b56edcbe40e#body_text
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