About: Effect of the One-Child Policy on Influenza Transmission in China: A Stochastic Transmission Model

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An Entity of Type : schema:ScholarlyArticle, within Data Space : wasabi.inria.fr associated with source document(s)

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type	Academic Article research paper schema:ScholarlyArticle
isDefinedBy	Covid-on-the-Web dataset
has title	Effect of the One-Child Policy on Influenza Transmission in China: A Stochastic Transmission Model
Creator	Liu, Fengchen Gordon, Aubree Coffee, Megan Cowling, Benjamin Yu, Guowei Enanoria, Wayne Porco, Travis Aragó N, J Ray, Kathryn Tomá,
Source	PMC
abstract	BACKGROUND: China's one-child-per-couple policy, introduced in 1979, led to profound demographic changes for nearly a quarter of the world's population. Several decades later, the consequences include decreased fertility rates, population aging, decreased household sizes, changes in family structure, and imbalanced sex ratios. The epidemiology of communicable diseases may have been affected by these changes since the transmission dynamics of infectious diseases depend on demographic characteristics of the population. Of particular interest is influenza because China and Southeast Asia lie at the center of a global transmission network of influenza. Moreover, changes in household structure may affect influenza transmission. Is it possible that the pronounced demographic changes that have occurred in China have affected influenza transmission? METHODS AND FINDINGS: To address this question, we developed a continuous-time, stochastic, individual-based simulation model for influenza transmission. With this model, we simulated 30 years of influenza transmission and compared influenza transmission rates in populations with and without the one-child policy control. We found that the average annual attack rate is reduced by 6.08% (SD 2.21%) in the presence of the one-child policy compared to a population in which no demographic changes occurred. There was no discernible difference in the secondary attack rate, −0.15% (SD 1.85%), between the populations with and without a one-child policy. We also forecasted influenza transmission over a ten-year time period in a population with a two-child policy under a hypothesis that a two-child-per-couple policy will be carried out in 2015, and found a negligible difference in the average annual attack rate compared to the population with the one-child policy. CONCLUSIONS: This study found that the average annual attack rate is slightly lowered in a population with a one-child policy, which may have resulted from a decrease in household size and the proportion of children in the population.
has issue date	2014-02-06(xsd:dateTime)
bibo:doi	10.1371/journal.pone.0084961
bibo:pmid	24516519
has license	cc-by
sha1sum (hex)	107824986103d1409f047ec9823d75b7b25d9702
schema:url	https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0084961
resource representing a document's title	Effect of the One-Child Policy on Influenza Transmission in China: A Stochastic Transmission Model
has PubMed Central identifier	PMC3916292
has PubMed identifier	24516519
schema:publication	PLoS One
resource representing a document's body	covid:107824986103d1409f047ec9823d75b7b25d9702#body_text
is schema:about of	named entity 'MODEL' named entity 'sex ratios' named entity 'demographic' named entity 'EFFECT' named entity 'QUARTER' named entity 'GLOBAL' named entity 'SEX RATIOS' named entity 'LATER' named entity 'STRUCTURE' named entity 'OCCURRED' named entity 'DECREASED FERTILITY' named entity 'NEARLY' named entity 'DEPEND' named entity 'DEMOGRAPHIC' named entity 'DEMOGRAPHIC CHARACTERISTICS' named entity 'CHANGES' named entity 'INCLUDE' named entity 'MAY HAVE' named entity 'TRANSMISSION' named entity 'WORLD' named entity 'LED' named entity 'POSSIBLE' named entity 'SOUTHEAST ASIA' named entity 'INFLUENZA' named entity 'POPULATION' named entity '27S' named entity 'NETWORK' named entity 'POLICY' named entity 'PARTICULAR' named entity 'COUPLE' named entity 'CENTER' named entity 'SIZES' named entity 'FERTILITY RATES' named entity 'CHINA' named entity 'TRANSMISSION' named entity 'DYNAMICS' named entity 'CHILD' named entity 'STOCHASTIC' named entity 'LIE' named entity 'CHILD' named entity 'PROFOUND' named entity 'HAVE' named entity 'CONSEQUENCES' named entity 'EPIDEMIOLOGY' named entity 'INTRODUCED' named entity 'POLICY' named entity 'BACKGROUND' named entity 'DECREASED' named entity 'AFFECTED' named entity 'CHINA' named entity 'AFFECT' named entity 'COMMUNICABLE DISEASES' named entity 'INFECTIOUS DISEASES' named entity 'INFLUENZA' named entity 'AGING' named entity 'FAMILY STRUCTURE' named entity 'INTEREST' named entity 'HOUSEHOLD' named entity 'THESE' covid:arg/107824986103d1409f047ec9823d75b7b25d9702 named entity 'quarter' named entity 'demographic' named entity 'transmission' named entity 'depend' named entity 'network' named entity 'China' named entity 'influenza' named entity 'fertility rates' named entity 'sex ratios' named entity 'China' named entity 'influenza transmission' named entity 'world's population'

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