About: 1,000,000 cases of COVID-19 outside of China: The date predicted by a simple heuristic

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An Entity of Type : schema:ScholarlyArticle, within Data Space : wasabi.inria.fr associated with source document(s)

Attributes	Values
type	Academic Article research paper schema:ScholarlyArticle
isDefinedBy	Covid-on-the-Web dataset
has title	1,000,000 cases of COVID-19 outside of China: The date predicted by a simple heuristic
Creator	Mansournia, M Pedrycz, W
Source	Elsevier; Medline; PMC
abstract	We forecast 1,000,000 COVID-19 cases outside of China by March 30, 2020 based on a heuristic and WHO situation reports. We do not model the COVID-19 pandemic; we model only the number of cases. The proposed heuristic is based on a simple observation that the plot of the given data is well approximated by an exponential curve. The exponential curve is used for forecasting the growth of new cases. It has been tested for the last situation report of the last day. Its accuracy has been 1.29% for the last day added and predicted by the 57 previous WHO situation reports (the date 18 March 2020). Prediction, forecast, pandemic, COVID-19, coronavirus, exponential growth curve parameter, heuristic, epidemiology, extrapolation, abductive reasoning, WHO situa- tion report.
has issue date	2020-03-23(xsd:dateTime)
bibo:doi	10.1016/j.gloepi.2020.100023
bibo:pmid	32292911
has license	no-cc
sha1sum (hex)	136a52d8100f85d1baa7976838bfcace2b6c08d7
schema:url	https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gloepi.2020.100023
resource representing a document's title	1,000,000 cases of COVID-19 outside of China: The date predicted by a simple heuristic
has PubMed Central identifier	PMC7118643
has PubMed identifier	32292911
schema:publication	Glob Epidemiol
resource representing a document's body	covid:136a52d8100f85d1baa7976838bfcace2b6c08d7#body_text
is schema:about of	named entity 'DATE' named entity 'PREDICTED' named entity 'DATE' named entity 'COVID-19' named entity 'HEURISTIC' named entity '1000' named entity 'COVID-19' named entity 'LIMITED' named entity 'FOUND' named entity 'PROOF' named entity 'JOURNAL ' named entity 'CASES' named entity 'PROOF' named entity 'OUTSIDE' named entity 'CHINA' named entity 'RESOURCES' named entity 'THESE' named entity 'COVID-19' named entity 'SIMPLE' named entity 'ABOUT' named entity 'PRE' named entity 'FINITE' named entity 'SUPPLY' named entity 'INFORMATION' named entity 'HOW' named entity 'VENTILATORS' named entity 'JOURNAL ' named entity 'PRE' named entity 'TIME' named entity 'finite resources' named entity 'CHINA' named entity 'COVID-19' named entity 'finite' named entity 'heuristic' named entity 'heuristic' named entity 'exponential curve' named entity 'COVID-19' named entity 'China' named entity 'satisficing' named entity 'COVID-19' named entity 'WHO' named entity 'COVID-19' named entity 'extrapolation' named entity 'exponential growth' named entity 'China' named entity 'COVID-19 pandemic' named entity 'WHO' named entity 'exponential curve' named entity 'non-linear model' named entity 'vertical blue' named entity 'COVID-19' named entity 'decision making process' named entity 'COVID-19' named entity 'exponential growth' named entity 'China' named entity 'mathematical model' named entity 'limited supply' named entity 'residual sum of squares' named entity 'heuristic' named entity 'COVID-19' named entity 'exponential function' named entity 'standard error' named entity 'March 30, 2020' named entity 'blue line' named entity 'abductive' named entity '1,000,000' named entity 'COVID-19' named entity 'COVID-19' named entity 'exponential curve' named entity 'extrapolation' named entity 'extrapolation' named entity 'China' named entity 'exponential curve' named entity 'non-linear least squares' named entity 'China' named entity '18 March' named entity 'exponential curve' named entity 'WHO' named entity 'COVID-19' named entity 'heuristic'

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