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About:
Identifying main and interaction effects of risk factors to predict intensive care admission in patients hospitalized with COVID-19: a retrospective cohort study in Hong Kong
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Academic Article
research paper
schema:ScholarlyArticle
isDefinedBy
Covid-on-the-Web dataset
title
Identifying main and interaction effects of risk factors to predict intensive care admission in patients hospitalized with COVID-19: a retrospective cohort study in Hong Kong
Creator
Cao, Zhidong
Liu, Tong
Cheung,
Zhang, Qingpeng
Tse, Gary
Wong, Kei
Cheung, Yung
Chi, Ian
Dajun, Daniel
Frcpath, Wu
Kk, William
Lee, Sharen
Man, Bernard
Man, Yung
Phd, Zeng
Zhang Phd, Qingpeng
Zhou, Jiandong
source
MedRxiv
abstract
Background: The coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) has become a pandemic, placing significant burdens on the healthcare systems. In this study, we tested the hypothesis that a machine learning approach incorporating hidden nonlinear interactions can improve prediction for Intensive care unit (ICU) admission. Methods: Consecutive patients admitted to public hospitals between 1st January and 24th May 2020 in Hong Kong with COVID-19 diagnosed by RT-PCR were included. The primary endpoint was ICU admission. Results: This study included 1043 patients (median age 35 (IQR: 32-37; 54% male). Nineteen patients were admitted to ICU (median hospital length of stay (LOS): 30 days, median ICU LOS: 16 days). ICU patients were more likely to be prescribed angiotensin converting enzyme inhibitors/angiotensin receptor blockers, anti-retroviral drugs lopinavir/ritonavir and remdesivir, ribavirin, steroids, interferon-beta and hydroxychloroquine. Significant predictors of ICU admission were older age, male sex, prior coronary artery disease, respiratory diseases, diabetes, hypertension and chronic kidney disease, and activated partial thromboplastin time, red cell count, white cell count, albumin and serum sodium. A tree-based machine learning model identified most informative characteristics and hidden interactions that can predict ICU admission. These were: low red cells with 1) male, 2) older age, 3) low albumin, 4) low sodium or 5) prolonged APTT. A five-fold cross validation confirms superior performance of this model over baseline models including XGBoost, LightGBM, random forests, and multivariate logistic regression. Conclusions: A machine learning model including baseline risk factors and their hidden interactions can accurately predict ICU admission in COVID-19.
has issue date
2020-07-02
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bibo:doi
10.1101/2020.06.30.20143651
has license
medrxiv
sha1sum (hex)
13fe1c87c57eac57291ce04002f923cccd7514ab
schema:url
https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.06.30.20143651
resource representing a document's title
Identifying main and interaction effects of risk factors to predict intensive care admission in patients hospitalized with COVID-19: a retrospective cohort study in Hong Kong
resource representing a document's body
covid:13fe1c87c57eac57291ce04002f923cccd7514ab#body_text
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schema:about
of
named entity 'prediction'
named entity 'risk factors'
named entity 'patients'
named entity 'APPROACH'
named entity 'CORONAVIRUS DISEASE 2019'
named entity 'PREDICTION'
named entity 'NONLINEAR'
named entity 'SIGNIFICANT'
named entity 'pandemic'
named entity 'hypothesis'
named entity 'nonlinear'
named entity 'ICU'
named entity 'Hong Kong'
named entity 'retrospective cohort study'
named entity 'XGBoost'
named entity 'ACEI'
named entity 'CC-BY 4.0 International license'
named entity 'remdesivir'
named entity 'APTT'
named entity 'APTT'
named entity 'COVID'
named entity 'cerebrovascular disease'
named entity 'interferon-beta'
named entity 'logistic regression'
named entity 'EBM'
named entity 'comorbidities'
named entity 'ribavirin'
named entity 'probability'
named entity 'serum sodium'
named entity 'COVID'
named entity 'Kaletra'
named entity 'overfitting'
named entity 'Hong Kong Island'
named entity 'carrying capacity'
named entity 'ICU'
named entity 'MERS'
named entity 'respiratory diseases'
named entity 'anti-viral drug'
named entity 'COVID'
named entity 'interferon-beta'
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named entity 'comorbidities'
named entity 'Univariate'
named entity 'ACEI'
named entity 'univariate'
named entity 'Canadian'
named entity 'hepatitis'
named entity 'medRxiv'
named entity 'ICU'
named entity 'hypertension'
named entity 'logistic regression'
named entity 'hypertension'
named entity 'respiratory diseases'
named entity 'ICU'
named entity 'statistically significant'
named entity 'CC-BY 4.0 International license'
named entity 'antibodies'
named entity 'cardiovascular disease'
named entity 'medRxiv'
named entity 'EBM'
named entity 'Kowloon District'
named entity 'triglycerides'
named entity 'red blood cells'
named entity 'ICU'
named entity 'hydroxychloroquine'
named entity 'interaction effects'
named entity 'Kaletra'
named entity 'ICU'
named entity 'simple model'
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