About: The Futures of the Pandemic in the USA : A Timed Intervention Model

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An Entity of Type : schema:ScholarlyArticle, within Data Space : wasabi.inria.fr associated with source document(s)

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type	Academic Article research paper schema:ScholarlyArticle
isDefinedBy	Covid-on-the-Web dataset
has title	The Futures of the Pandemic in the USA : A Timed Intervention Model
Creator	Hachtel, Gary
Source	MedRxiv
abstract	We propose a novel Timed Intervention SPEIQRD extended SEIR model for predicting the evolution of the Covid 19 Pandemic in the USA. The model can, by parameter, assignment, be reduced to the model of Hong et al, which appeared in February, 2020. Novel aspects of the proposed model include 1. Formulation of a %22Protected%22 population P, which can be viewed as a %22Sheltered in Place%22, unexposed population which, starting at time t = Tau_P, builds up and stores a reservoir of unexposed Population; 2. This %22Protection Intervention%22 provides the basis for a second, %22Timed Release%22 Intervention: on receiving a %22reopening signal%22 at time t = tau_R$, this second intervention initiates a release of the stored population P back into the general population S. 3. Selection of model parameters to %22optimize%22 the approximation of the model up to the present, and then projecting simulation of the model based on the value thus obtained 100,200, 365, and 730 days into the future. This model shows excellent qualitative results and quantitative results that are good, considering the chosen nationwide scope. These results compare favorably to University of Washington projections, as published Daily on the Worldometers.info website. The qualitative and quantitative behavior of all 7}state variables S,P,E,I,Q,R,D will be illustrated and discussed, in this and possible future further Intervention cyclesfootnote{%22How long, I wondered, will this thing, last?} Lyric from %22A Foggy Day%22 by George and Ira Gershwin}
has issue date	2020-08-25(xsd:dateTime)
bibo:doi	10.1101/2020.08.23.20180174
has license	medrxiv
sha1sum (hex)	14f9e2c2b8b69596bce4f02fa28257d597c64e1b
schema:url	https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.08.23.20180174
resource representing a document's title	The Futures of the Pandemic in the USA : A Timed Intervention Model
resource representing a document's body	covid:14f9e2c2b8b69596bce4f02fa28257d597c64e1b#body_text
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