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  • Host species-specific fitness landscapes largely determine the outcome of host switching during pathogen emergence. Using chikungunya virus (CHIKV) to study adaptation to a mosquito vector, we evaluated mutations associated with recently evolved sub-lineages. Multiple Aedes albopictus-adaptive fitness peaks became available after CHIKV acquired an initial adaptive (E1-A226V) substitution, permitting rapid lineage diversification observed in nature. All second-step mutations involved replacements by glutamine or glutamic acid of E2 glycoprotein amino acids in the acid-sensitive region, providing a framework to anticipate additional A. albopictus-adaptive mutations. The combination of second-step adaptive mutations into a single, ‘super-adaptive’ fitness peak also predicted the future emergence of CHIKV strains with even greater transmission efficiency in some current regions of endemic circulation, followed by their likely global spread. SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION: The online version of this article (doi:10.1038/ncomms5084) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.
Subject
  • Genomics
  • Genetics
  • Phylogenetics
  • Genetic mapping
  • Tree of life (biology)
  • Trees (data structures)
  • Probability distribution fitting
  • Ancient Greek punctuation
  • Punctuation
  • Computational statistics
  • Resampling (statistics)
  • M-estimators
  • Maximum likelihood estimation
  • Polymorphism (biology)
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