About: Liberte, Egalite, Fraternite... Contamine? Estimating the impact of French municipal elections on COVID-19 spread in France

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About: Liberte, Egalite, Fraternite... Contamine? Estimating the impact of French municipal elections on COVID-19 spread in France Goto Sponge NotDistinct Permalink

An Entity of Type : schema:ScholarlyArticle, within Data Space : wasabi.inria.fr associated with source document(s)

Attributes	Values
type	Academic Article research paper schema:ScholarlyArticle
isDefinedBy	Covid-on-the-Web dataset
has title	Liberte, Egalite, Fraternite... Contamine? Estimating the impact of French municipal elections on COVID-19 spread in France
Creator	Cassan, Guilhem Decalf, Jérémie Lutaud, Romain Macipe, Antonio Sangnier, Marc Verardi, Vincenzo
Source	MedRxiv
abstract	On March 15, about 20,000,000 voters cast their vote for the first round of the 2020 French municipal elections. We investigate the extent to which this event contributed to the COVID-19 epidemics in France. To this end, we first predict each departement's own dynamics using information up to the election to calibrate a standard logistic model. We then take advantage of electoral turnout differences between departements to distinguish the impact of the election on prediction errors in hospitalizations from that of simultaneously implemented anti-contagion policies. We report a detrimental effect of the election in locations that were at relatively advanced stages of the epidemics by the time of the election. In contrast, we show that the election did not contribute to the epidemics in departements with lower infection levels by March 15. All in all, our estimates suggest that elections accounted for about 4,000 excess hospitalizations by the end of March, which represents 15% of all hospitalizations by this time. They also suggest that holding elections in June may not be as detrimental.
has issue date	2020-06-25(xsd:dateTime)
bibo:doi	10.1101/2020.06.24.20138990
has license	medrxiv
sha1sum (hex)	2050e42366c19e2764e0f71bd2c4e2944d812b68
schema:url	https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.06.24.20138990
resource representing a document's title	Liberte, Egalite, Fraternite... Contamine? Estimating the impact of French municipal elections on COVID-19 spread in France
resource representing a document's body	covid:2050e42366c19e2764e0f71bd2c4e2944d812b68#body_text
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