About: The epidemic curve and the final extent of the COVID-19 pandemic are usually predicted from the rate of early exponential raising using the SIR model. These predictions implicitly assume a full social mixing, which is not plausible generally. Here I am showing a counterexample to the these predictions, based on random propagation of an epidemic in Barab/'asi--Albert scale-free network models. The start of the epidemic suggests $R_0=2.6$, but unlike $/Omega/approx 70/%{}$ predicted by the SIR model, they reach a final extent of only $/Omega/approx 4/%{}$ without external mitigation and $/Omega/approx 0.5$--$1.5/%{}$ with mitigation. Daily infection rate at the top is also 1--1.5 orders of magnitude less than in SIR models. Quarantining only the 1.5/%{} most active superspreaders has similar effect on extent and top infection rate as blind quarantining a random 50/%{} of the full community.   Goto Sponge  NotDistinct  Permalink

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  • The epidemic curve and the final extent of the COVID-19 pandemic are usually predicted from the rate of early exponential raising using the SIR model. These predictions implicitly assume a full social mixing, which is not plausible generally. Here I am showing a counterexample to the these predictions, based on random propagation of an epidemic in Barab/'asi--Albert scale-free network models. The start of the epidemic suggests $R_0=2.6$, but unlike $/Omega/approx 70/%{}$ predicted by the SIR model, they reach a final extent of only $/Omega/approx 4/%{}$ without external mitigation and $/Omega/approx 0.5$--$1.5/%{}$ with mitigation. Daily infection rate at the top is also 1--1.5 orders of magnitude less than in SIR models. Quarantining only the 1.5/%{} most active superspreaders has similar effect on extent and top infection rate as blind quarantining a random 50/%{} of the full community.
Subject
  • Epidemics
  • Epidemiology
  • Infectious diseases
  • Quarantine facilities
  • Finnish inventions
  • 2019 health disasters
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