About: Simulation‐based estimation of the early spread of COVID‐19 in Iran: actual versus confirmed cases

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An Entity of Type : schema:ScholarlyArticle, within Data Space : wasabi.inria.fr associated with source document(s)

Attributes	Values
type	Academic Article research paper schema:ScholarlyArticle
isDefinedBy	Covid-on-the-Web dataset
has title	Simulation‐based estimation of the early spread of COVID‐19 in Iran: actual versus confirmed cases
Creator	Ghaffarzadegan, Navid Rahmandad, Hazhir
Source	Medline; PMC
abstract	Understanding the state of the COVID‐19 pandemic relies on infection and mortality data. Yet official data may underestimate the actual cases due to limited symptoms and testing capacity. We offer a simulation‐based approach which combines various sources of data to estimate the magnitude of outbreak. Early in the epidemic we applied the method to Iran's case, an epicenter of the pandemic in winter 2020. Estimates using data up to March 20th, 2020, point to 916,000 (90% UI: 508 K, 1.5 M) cumulative cases and 15,485 (90% UI: 8.4 K, 25.8 K) total deaths, numbers an order of magnitude higher than official statistics. Our projections suggest that absent strong sustaining of contact reductions the epidemic may resurface. We also use data and studies from the succeeding months to reflect on the quality of original estimates. Our proposed approach can be used for similar cases elsewhere to provide a more accurate, early, estimate of outbreak state. © 2020 System Dynamics Society
has issue date	2020-07-06(xsd:dateTime)
bibo:doi	10.1002/sdr.1655
bibo:pmid	32834468
has license	no-cc
sha1sum (hex)	222513a7918e8cdaa911d0e3cbdc7da967c8d385
schema:url	https://doi.org/10.1002/sdr.1655
resource representing a document's title	Simulation‐based estimation of the early spread of COVID‐19 in Iran: actual versus confirmed cases
has PubMed Central identifier	PMC7361282
has PubMed identifier	32834468
schema:publication	Syst Dyn Rev
resource representing a document's body	covid:222513a7918e8cdaa911d0e3cbdc7da967c8d385#body_text
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