About: Sensitivity analysis of the effects of non-pharmaceutical interventions on COVID-19 in Europe

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About: Sensitivity analysis of the effects of non-pharmaceutical interventions on COVID-19 in Europe Goto Sponge NotDistinct Permalink

An Entity of Type : schema:ScholarlyArticle, within Data Space : wasabi.inria.fr associated with source document(s)

Attributes	Values
type	Academic Article research paper schema:ScholarlyArticle
isDefinedBy	Covid-on-the-Web dataset
has title	Sensitivity analysis of the effects of non-pharmaceutical interventions on COVID-19 in Europe
Creator	Dahlström, Örjan Ekberg, Joakim Spreco, Armin Timpka, Toomas Affiliations, Bernhardsson, Bo Carlson, Fredrik Gustafsson, Fredrik Heimerson, Albin Jaldén, Joakim Jidling, Carl Jöud, Anna Schön, Thomas Soltesz, Kristian
Source	MedRxiv
abstract	The role of non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) on the spread of SARS-CoV-2 has drawn significant attention, both scientific and political. Particularly, an article by the Imperial College COVID-19 Response Team (ICCRT), published online in Nature on June 8, 2020, evaluates the efficiency of 5 NPIs. Based on mortality data up to early May, it concludes that only one of the interventions, lockdown, has been efficient in 10 out of 11 studied European countries. We show, via simulations using the ICCRT model code, that conclusions regarding the effectiveness of individual NPIs are not justified. Our analysis focuses on the 11th country, Sweden, an outlier in that no lockdown was effectuated. The new simulations show that estimated NPI efficiencies across all 11 countries change drastically unless the model is adapted to give the Swedish data special treatment. While stated otherwise in the Nature article, such adaptation has been done in the model code reproducing its results: An ungrounded country-specific parameter said to have been introduced in all 11 countries, is in the code only activated for Sweden. This parameter de facto provides a new NPI category, only present in Sweden, and with an impact comparable to that of a lockdown. While the considered NPIs have unarguably contributed to reduce virus spread, our analysis reveals that their individual efficiency cannot be reliably quantified by the ICCRT model, provided mortality data up to early May.
has issue date	2020-06-18(xsd:dateTime)
bibo:doi	10.1101/2020.06.15.20131953
has license	medrxiv
sha1sum (hex)	2b00224fb2de4db538e39a9ef750085a586b1420
schema:url	https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.06.15.20131953
resource representing a document's title	Sensitivity analysis of the effects of non-pharmaceutical interventions on COVID-19 in Europe
resource representing a document's body	covid:2b00224fb2de4db538e39a9ef750085a586b1420#body_text
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