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About:
Second waves, social distancing, and the spread of COVID-19 across America
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Type:
Academic Article
research paper
schema:ScholarlyArticle
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type
Academic Article
research paper
schema:ScholarlyArticle
isDefinedBy
Covid-on-the-Web dataset
has title
Second waves, social distancing, and the spread of COVID-19 across America
Creator
Hulme, Oliver
Billig, Alexander
Daunizeau, Jean
Flandin, Guillaume
Friston, Karl
Lambert, Christian
Litvak, Vladimir
Moran, Rosalyn
Parr, Thomas
Price, Cathy
Razi, Adeel
Zeidman, Peter
Source
ArXiv
abstract
We recently described a dynamic causal model of a COVID-19 outbreak within a single region. Here, we combine several of these (epidemic) models to create a (pandemic) model of viral spread among regions. Our focus is on a second wave of new cases that may result from loss of immunity--and the exchange of people between regions--and how mortality rates can be ameliorated under different strategic responses. In particular, we consider hard or soft social distancing strategies predicated on national (Federal) or regional (State) estimates of the prevalence of infection in the population. The modelling is demonstrated using timeseries of new cases and deaths from the United States to estimate the parameters of a factorial (compartmental) epidemiological model of each State and, crucially, coupling between States. Using Bayesian model reduction, we identify the effective connectivity between States that best explains the initial phases of the outbreak in the United States. Using the ensuing posterior parameter estimates, we then evaluate the likely outcomes of different policies in terms of mortality, working days lost due to lockdown and demands upon critical care. The provisional results of this modelling suggest that social distancing and loss of immunity are the two key factors that underwrite a return to endemic equilibrium.
has issue date
2020-04-26
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has license
arxiv
sha1sum (hex)
2c64394abb5e97b4efcb57c18e8e649b869a61bd
resource representing a document's title
Second waves, social distancing, and the spread of COVID-19 across America
resource representing a document's body
covid:2c64394abb5e97b4efcb57c18e8e649b869a61bd#body_text
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schema:about
of
named entity 'connectivity'
named entity 'timeseries'
named entity 'model'
named entity 'estimates'
named entity 'COVID-19'
named entity 'EQUILIBRIUM'
named entity 'DAYS'
named entity 'INITIAL'
named entity 'RESULTS'
named entity 'POLICIES'
named entity 'WORKING'
named entity 'CRITICAL CARE'
named entity 'FOCUS'
named entity 'OUR'
named entity 'DUE TO'
named entity 'STATE'
named entity 'STRATEGIES'
named entity 'LOSS OF'
named entity 'SUGGEST'
covid:arg/2c64394abb5e97b4efcb57c18e8e649b869a61bd
named entity 'regional'
named entity 'social distancing'
named entity 'infection'
named entity 'mortality rates'
named entity 'combine'
named entity 'modelling'
named entity 'loss'
named entity 'Federal'
named entity 'factors'
named entity 'model'
named entity 'cases'
named entity 'create'
named entity 'Contents'
named entity 'social distancing'
named entity 'United States'
named entity 'timeseries'
named entity 'underwrite'
named entity 'herd immunity'
named entity 'SEIR'
named entity 'mortality rates'
named entity 'epidemiological model'
named entity 'mortality rates'
named entity 'infection'
named entity 'academic research'
named entity 'ARDS'
named entity 'model inversion'
named entity 'New York'
named entity 'seasonal influenza'
named entity 'blue line'
named entity 'wildfire'
named entity 'human coronavirus'
named entity 'GNU General Public License'
named entity 'generative model'
named entity 'self-isolate'
named entity 'laudanum'
named entity 'coronaviruses'
named entity 'social distancing'
named entity 'social distancing'
named entity 'social distancing'
named entity 'herd immunity'
named entity 'SARS-CoV-2'
named entity 'Wuhan'
named entity 'death rates'
named entity 'endemic equilibrium'
named entity 'probability'
named entity 'death rates'
named entity 'Bayesian model reduction'
named entity 'social distancing'
named entity 'epidemic'
named entity 'seroprevalence'
named entity 'social distancing'
named entity 'COVID-19'
named entity 'April 2020'
named entity 'critical care'
named entity 'empirical data'
named entity 'probability'
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