About: Quantifying the impact of physical distance measures on the transmission of COVID-19 in the UK

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An Entity of Type : schema:ScholarlyArticle, within Data Space : wasabi.inria.fr associated with source document(s)

Attributes	Values
type	Academic Article research paper schema:ScholarlyArticle
isDefinedBy	Covid-on-the-Web dataset
has title	Quantifying the impact of physical distance measures on the transmission of COVID-19 in the UK
Creator	Jombart, Thibaut Liu, Yang Endo, Akira Funk, Sebastian Edmunds, John Klepac, Petra Rosello, Alicia Kucharski, Adam Abbott, Sam Davies, Nicholas Diamond, Charlie Flasche, Stefan Gibbs, Hamish Gimma, Amy Hellewell, Joel Jit, Mark Sun, Fiona Prem, Kiesha Clifford, Samuel Bosse, Nikos Eggo, Rosalind Jarvis, Christopher Medley, Graham Munday, James O'reilly, Kathleen Pearson, Carl Quilty, Billy Rubin, G Russell, Timothy Van Zandvoort, Kevin Covid-19, Cmmid Auzenbergs, Megan Deol, Arminder Emery, Jon Houben, Rein Knight, Gwen Leclerc, Quentin Nightingale, Emily Procter, Simon
Source	MedRxiv
abstract	Background: To mitigate and slow the spread of COVID-19, many countries have adopted unprecedented physical distancing policies, including the UK. We evaluate whether these measures might be sufficient to control the epidemic by estimating their impact on the reproduction number (R0, the average number of secondary cases generated per case). Methods: We asked a representative sample of UK adults about their contact patterns on the previous day. The questionnaire documents the age and location of contacts and as well as a measure of their intimacy (whether physical contact was made or not). In addition, we asked about adherence to different physical distancing measures. The first surveys were sent on Tuesday 24th March, one day after a “lockdown” was implemented across the UK. We compared measured contact patterns during the lockdown to patterns of social contact made during a non-epidemic period. By comparing these, we estimated the change in reproduction number as a consequence of the physical distancing measures imposed. We used a meta-analysis of published estimates to inform our estimates of the reproduction number before interventions were put in place. Findings: We found a 73% reduction in the average daily number of contacts observed per participant (from 10.2 to 2.9). This would be sufficient to reduce R0 from 2.6 prior to lockdown to 0.62 (95% confidence interval [CI] 0.37 - 0.89) after the lockdown, based on all types of contact and 0.37 (95% CI = 0.22 - 0.53) for physical contacts only. Interpretation: The physical distancing measures adopted by the UK public have substantially reduced contact levels and will likely lead to a substantial impact and a decline in cases in the coming weeks. However, this projected decline in incidence will not occur immediately as there are significant delays between infection, the onset of symptomatic disease and hospitalisation, as well as further delays to these events being reported. Tracking behavioural change can give a more rapid assessment of the impact of physical distancing measures than routine epidemiological surveillance.
has issue date	2020-04-03(xsd:dateTime)
bibo:doi	10.1101/2020.03.31.20049023
has license	medrxiv
sha1sum (hex)	31fb22d877d6efa55e7c8261a59a1f0d35962829
schema:url	https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.03.31.20049023
resource representing a document's title	Quantifying the impact of physical distance measures on the transmission of COVID-19 in the UK
resource representing a document's body	covid:31fb22d877d6efa55e7c8261a59a1f0d35962829#body_text
is schema:about of	named entity 'mitigate' named entity 'physical' named entity 'TRANSMISSION' named entity 'IMPACT' named entity 'DISTANCE' covid:arg/31fb22d877d6efa55e7c8261a59a1f0d35962829 named entity 'SUFFICIENT' named entity 'MEASURES' named entity 'COVID-19' named entity 'HAVE' named entity 'MIGHT BE' named entity 'MITIGATE' named entity 'IMPACT' named entity 'PHYSICAL' named entity 'COVID-19' named entity 'MEASURES' named entity 'CASES' named entity 'CASE' named entity 'THEIR' named entity 'ESTIMATING' named entity 'INCLUDING' named entity 'EPIDEMIC' named entity 'SLOW' named entity 'THESE' named entity 'AVERAGE' named entity 'ADOPTED' named entity 'EVALUATE' named entity 'SECONDARY' named entity 'POLICIES' named entity 'COUNTRIES' named entity 'SPREAD' named entity 'GENERATED' named entity 'REPRODUCTION NUMBER' named entity 'NUMBER OF' named entity 'TO CONTROL' named entity 'estimating' named entity 'evaluate' named entity 'generated' named entity 'physical' named entity 'average' named entity 'distance measures' named entity 'reproduction number' named entity 'epidemic' named entity 'distance measures' named entity 'China' named entity 'medRxiv' named entity 'peer-reviewed'

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