About: Protecting an island nation from extreme pandemic threats: Proof-of-concept around border closure as an intervention

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About: Protecting an island nation from extreme pandemic threats: Proof-of-concept around border closure as an intervention Goto Sponge NotDistinct Permalink

An Entity of Type : schema:ScholarlyArticle, within Data Space : wasabi.inria.fr associated with source document(s)

Attributes	Values
type	Academic Article research paper schema:ScholarlyArticle
isDefinedBy	Covid-on-the-Web dataset
has title	Protecting an island nation from extreme pandemic threats: Proof-of-concept around border closure as an intervention
Creator	Wilson, Nick Mansoor, Osman Boyd, Matt Kvizhinadze, Giorgi Baker, Michael
Source	Medline; PMC
abstract	BACKGROUND: Countries are well advised to prepare for future pandemic risks (e.g., pandemic influenza, novel emerging agents or synthetic bioweapons). These preparations do not typically include planning for complete border closure. Even though border closure may not be instituted in time, and can fail, there might still plausible chances of success for well organized island nations. OBJECTIVE: To estimate costs and benefits of complete border closure in response to new pandemic threats, at an initial proof-of-concept level. New Zealand was used as a case-study for an island country. METHODS: An Excel spreadsheet model was developed to estimate costs and benefits. Case-study specific epidemiological data was sourced from past influenza pandemics. Country-specific healthcare cost data, valuation of life, and lost tourism revenue were imputed (with lost trade also in scenario analyses). RESULTS: For a new pandemic equivalent to the 1918 influenza pandemic (albeit with half the mortality rate, “Scenario A”), it was estimated that successful border closure for 26 weeks provided a net societal benefit (e.g., of NZ$11.0 billion, USD$7.3 billion). Even in the face of a complete end to trade, a net benefit was estimated for scenarios where the mortality rate was high (e.g., at 10 times the mortality impact of “Scenario A”, or 2.75% of the country’s population dying) giving a net benefit of NZ$54 billion (USD$36 billion). But for some other pandemic scenarios where trade ceased, border closure resulted in a net negative societal value (e.g., for “Scenario A” times three for 26 weeks of border closure–but not for only 12 weeks of closure when it would still be beneficial). CONCLUSIONS: This “proof-of-concept” work indicates that more detailed cost-benefit analysis of border closure in very severe pandemic situations for some island nations is probably warranted, as this course of action might sometimes be worthwhile from a societal perspective.
has issue date	2017-06-16(xsd:dateTime)
bibo:doi	10.1371/journal.pone.0178732
bibo:pmid	28622344
has license	cc-by
sha1sum (hex)	32e54e86db8e7cc46844319fb3dba6d9a02a86f7
schema:url	https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0178732
resource representing a document's title	Protecting an island nation from extreme pandemic threats: Proof-of-concept around border closure as an intervention
has PubMed Central identifier	PMC5473559
has PubMed identifier	28622344
schema:publication	PLoS One
resource representing a document's body	covid:32e54e86db8e7cc46844319fb3dba6d9a02a86f7#body_text
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