About: Interventions to mitigate early spread of SARS-CoV-2 in Singapore: a modelling study

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An Entity of Type : schema:ScholarlyArticle, within Data Space : wasabi.inria.fr associated with source document(s)

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type	Academic Article research paper schema:ScholarlyArticle
isDefinedBy	Covid-on-the-Web dataset
title	Interventions to mitigate early spread of SARS-CoV-2 in Singapore: a modelling study
source	Elsevier; Medline; PMC
abstract	BACKGROUND: Since the coronavirus disease 2019 outbreak began in the Chinese city of Wuhan on Dec 31, 2019, 68 imported cases and 175 locally acquired infections have been reported in Singapore. We aimed to investigate options for early intervention in Singapore should local containment (eg, preventing disease spread through contact tracing efforts) be unsuccessful. METHODS: We adapted an influenza epidemic simulation model to estimate the likelihood of human-to-human transmission of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) in a simulated Singaporean population. Using this model, we estimated the cumulative number of SARS-CoV-2 infections at 80 days, after detection of 100 cases of community transmission, under three infectivity scenarios (basic reproduction number [R(0)] of 1·5, 2·0, or 2·5) and assuming 7·5% of infections are asymptomatic. We first ran the model assuming no intervention was in place (baseline scenario), and then assessed the effect of four intervention scenarios compared with a baseline scenario on the size and progression of the outbreak for each R(0) value. These scenarios included isolation measures for infected individuals and quarantining of family members (hereafter referred to as quarantine); quarantine plus school closure; quarantine plus workplace distancing; and quarantine, school closure, and workplace distancing (hereafter referred to as the combined intervention). We also did sensitivity analyses by altering the asymptomatic fraction of infections (22·7%, 30·0%, 40·0%, and 50·0%) to compare outbreak sizes under the same control measures. FINDINGS: For the baseline scenario, when R(0) was 1·5, the median cumulative number of infections at day 80 was 279 000 (IQR 245 000–320 000), corresponding to 7·4% (IQR 6·5–8·5) of the resident population of Singapore. The median number of infections increased with higher infectivity: 727 000 cases (670 000–776 000) when R(0) was 2·0, corresponding to 19·3% (17·8–20·6) of the Singaporean population, and 1 207 000 cases (1 164 000–1 249 000) when R(0) was 2·5, corresponding to 32% (30·9–33·1) of the Singaporean population. Compared with the baseline scenario, the combined intervention was the most effective, reducing the estimated median number of infections by 99·3% (IQR 92·6–99·9) when R(0) was 1·5, by 93·0% (81·5–99·7) when R(0) was 2·0, and by 78·2% (59·0 −94·4) when R(0) was 2·5. Assuming increasing asymptomatic fractions up to 50·0%, up to 277 000 infections were estimated to occur at day 80 with the combined intervention relative to 1800 for the baseline at R(0) of 1·5. INTERPRETATION: Implementing the combined intervention of quarantining infected individuals and their family members, workplace distancing, and school closure once community transmission has been detected could substantially reduce the number of SARS-CoV-2 infections. We therefore recommend immediate deployment of this strategy if local secondary transmission is confirmed within Singapore. However, quarantine and workplace distancing should be prioritised over school closure because at this early stage, symptomatic children have higher withdrawal rates from school than do symptomatic adults from work. At higher asymptomatic proportions, intervention effectiveness might be substantially reduced requiring the need for effective case management and treatments, and preventive measures such as vaccines. FUNDING: Singapore Ministry of Health, Singapore Population Health Improvement Centre.
has issue date	2020-03-23(xsd:dateTime)
bibo:doi	10.1016/s1473-3099(20)30162-6
bibo:pmid	32213332
has license	no-cc
sha1sum (hex)	345969d051af6c2fd33c3a28d1ad163dcd3b0ee1
schema:url	https://doi.org/10.1016/s1473-3099%2820%2930162-6
resource representing a document's title	Interventions to mitigate early spread of SARS-CoV-2 in Singapore: a modelling study
has PubMed Central identifier	PMC7158571
has PubMed identifier	32213332
schema:publication	Lancet Infect Dis
resource representing a document's body	covid:345969d051af6c2fd33c3a28d1ad163dcd3b0ee1#body_text
is schema:about of	named entity 'GENERATED' named entity 'realistic' named entity 'EZ-Link' named entity 'train station' named entity 'public transport' named entity 'postal codes' named entity 'Singapore' named entity 'Singapore' named entity 'Singapore' named entity 'Registry of Births and Deaths' named entity 'public transport' named entity 'Singapore Land Authority' named entity 'Singapore' named entity 'senior pass' named entity 'Labour Force' named entity 'population process' named entity 'ethnic group' named entity 'Singapore' named entity 'inter-ethnic' named entity 'public transportation' named entity 'working population' named entity 'EZ-Link' named entity 'urban city' named entity 'EZ-Link' named entity 'POPULATION' named entity 'HOW' named entity 'respiratory infection' named entity 'incorporated' named entity 'population' named entity 'respiratory infection' named entity 'RESPIRATORY INFECTION' named entity 'MODEL' named entity 'appendix' named entity 'APPENDIX' named entity 'DESCRIPTION' named entity 'SYNTHETIC'
is part of of	covid:345969d051af6c2fd33c3a28d1ad163dcd3b0ee1#body_text BACKGROUND: Since the coronavirus disease 2019 outbreak began in the Chinese city of Wuhan on Dec 31, 2019, 68 imported cases and 175 locally acquired infections have been reported in Singapore. We aimed to investigate options for early intervention in Singapore should local containment (eg, preventing disease spread through contact tracing efforts) be unsuccessful. METHODS: We adapted an influenza epidemic simulation model to estimate the likelihood of human-to-human transmission of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) in a simulated Singaporean population. Using this model, we estimated the cumulative number of SARS-CoV-2 infections at 80 days, after detection of 100 cases of community transmission, under three infectivity scenarios (basic reproduction number [R(0)] of 1·5, 2·0, or 2·5) and assuming 7·5% of infections are asymptomatic. We first ran the model assuming no intervention was in place (baseline scenario), and then assessed the effect of four intervention scenarios compared with a baseline scenario on the size and progression of the outbreak for each R(0) value. These scenarios included isolation measures for infected individuals and quarantining of family members (hereafter referred to as quarantine); quarantine plus school closure; quarantine plus workplace distancing; and quarantine, school closure, and workplace distancing (hereafter referred to as the combined intervention). We also did sensitivity analyses by altering the asymptomatic fraction of infections (22·7%, 30·0%, 40·0%, and 50·0%) to compare outbreak sizes under the same control measures. FINDINGS: For the baseline scenario, when R(0) was 1·5, the median cumulative number of infections at day 80 was 279 000 (IQR 245 000–320 000), corresponding to 7·4% (IQR 6·5–8·5) of the resident population of Singapore. The median number of infections increased with higher infectivity: 727 000 cases (670 000–776 000) when R(0) was 2·0, corresponding to 19·3% (17·8–20·6) of the Singaporean population, and 1 207 000 cases (1 164 000–1 249 000) when R(0) was 2·5, corresponding to 32% (30·9–33·1) of the Singaporean population. Compared with the baseline scenario, the combined intervention was the most effective, reducing the estimated median number of infections by 99·3% (IQR 92·6–99·9) when R(0) was 1·5, by 93·0% (81·5–99·7) when R(0) was 2·0, and by 78·2% (59·0 −94·4) when R(0) was 2·5. Assuming increasing asymptomatic fractions up to 50·0%, up to 277 000 infections were estimated to occur at day 80 with the combined intervention relative to 1800 for the baseline at R(0) of 1·5. INTERPRETATION: Implementing the combined intervention of quarantining infected individuals and their family members, workplace distancing, and school closure once community transmission has been detected could substantially reduce the number of SARS-CoV-2 infections. We therefore recommend immediate deployment of this strategy if local secondary transmission is confirmed within Singapore. However, quarantine and workplace distancing should be prioritised over school closure because at this early stage, symptomatic children have higher withdrawal rates from school than do symptomatic adults from work. At higher asymptomatic proportions, intervention effectiveness might be substantially reduced requiring the need for effective case management and treatments, and preventive measures such as vaccines. FUNDING: Singapore Ministry of Health, Singapore Population Health Improvement Centre. Interventions to mitigate early spread of SARS-CoV-2 in Singapore: a modelling study

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