About: Intermittent yet coordinated regional strategies can alleviate the COVID-19 epidemic: a network model of the Italian case

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About: Intermittent yet coordinated regional strategies can alleviate the COVID-19 epidemic: a network model of the Italian case Goto Sponge NotDistinct Permalink

An Entity of Type : schema:ScholarlyArticle, within Data Space : wasabi.inria.fr associated with source document(s)

Attributes	Values
type	Academic Article research paper schema:ScholarlyArticle
isDefinedBy	Covid-on-the-Web dataset
title	Intermittent yet coordinated regional strategies can alleviate the COVID-19 epidemic: a network model of the Italian case
Creator	Calabrese, Carmela Cardona, Ricardo Coraggio, Marco De Lellis, Francesco De Lellis, Piero Di Bernardo, Mario Guarino, Agostino Liuzza, Davide Lo, Francesco Meglio, Anna Rossa, Fabio Russo, Giovanni Salzano, Davide
source	ArXiv
abstract	The COVID-19 epidemic that emerged in Wuhan China at the end of 2019 hit Italy particularly hard, yielding the implementation of strict national lockdown rules (Phase 1). There is now a hot ongoing debate in Italy and abroad on what the best strategy is to restart a country to exit a national lockdown (Phase 2). Previous studies have focused on modelling possible restarting scenarios at the national level, overlooking the fact that Italy, as other nations around the world, is divided in administrative regions who can independently oversee their own share of the Italian National Health Service. In this study, we show that regionalism, and heterogeneity between regions, is essential to understand the spread of the epidemic and, more importantly, to design effective post Lock-Down strategies to control the disease. To achieve this, we model Italy as a network of regions and parameterize the model of each region on real data spanning almost two months from the initial outbreak. Using the model, we confirm the effectiveness at the regional level of the national lockdown strategy implemented so far by the Italian government to mitigate the spread of the disease and show its efficacy at the regional level. We also propose that differentiated, albeit coordinated, regional interventions can be effective in Phase 2 to restart the country and avoid future recurrence of the epidemic, while avoiding saturation of the regional health systems and mitigating impact on costs. Our study and methodology can be easily extended to other levels of granularity (provinces or counties in the same region or states in other federal countries, etc.) to support policy- and decision-makers.
has issue date	2020-05-15(xsd:dateTime)
has license	arxiv
sha1sum (hex)	34d802f246e31c660bf5a442ddbf2a8232636d96
resource representing a document's title	Intermittent yet coordinated regional strategies can alleviate the COVID-19 epidemic: a network model of the Italian case
resource representing a document's body	covid:34d802f246e31c660bf5a442ddbf2a8232636d96#body_text
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