About: It can be dangerous to take epidemic curves of COVID-19 at face value

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An Entity of Type : schema:ScholarlyArticle, within Data Space : wasabi.inria.fr associated with source document(s)

Attributes	Values
type	Academic Article research paper schema:ScholarlyArticle
isDefinedBy	Covid-on-the-Web dataset
has title	It can be dangerous to take epidemic curves of COVID-19 at face value
Creator	Burstyn, Igor Goldstein, Neal Gustafson, Paul
Source	Medline; PMC
abstract	During an epidemic with a new virus, we depend on modelling to plan the response: but how good are the data? The aim of our work was to better understand the impact of misclassification errors in identification of true cases of COVID-19 on epidemic curves. Data originated from Alberta, Canada (available on 28 May 2020). There is presently no information of sensitivity (Sn) and specificity (Sp) of laboratory tests used in Canada for the causal agent for COVID-19. Therefore, we examined best attainable performance in other jurisdictions and similar viruses. This suggested perfect Sp and Sn 60–95%. We used these values to re-calculate epidemic curves to visualize the potential bias due to imperfect testing. If the sensitivity improved, the observed and adjusted epidemic curves likely fall within 95% confidence intervals of the observed counts. However, bias in shape and peak of the epidemic curves can be pronounced, if sensitivity either degrades or remains poor in the 60–70% range. These issues are minor early in the epidemic, but hundreds of undiagnosed cases are likely later on. It is therefore hazardous to judge progress of the epidemic based on observed epidemic curves unless quality of testing is better understood. ELECTRONIC SUPPLEMENTARY MATERIAL: The online version of this article (10.17269/s41997-020-00367-6) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.
has issue date	2020-06-23(xsd:dateTime)
bibo:doi	10.17269/s41997-020-00367-6
bibo:pmid	32578184
has license	no-cc
sha1sum (hex)	34ff0cd9c98c40f72a8624cc658cb0e3fa72101c
schema:url	https://doi.org/10.17269/s41997-020-00367-6
resource representing a document's title	It can be dangerous to take epidemic curves of COVID-19 at face value
has PubMed Central identifier	PMC7309693
has PubMed identifier	32578184
schema:publication	Can J Public Health
resource representing a document's body	covid:34ff0cd9c98c40f72a8624cc658cb0e3fa72101c#body_text
is schema:about of	named entity 'impact' named entity 'aim' named entity 'epidemic' named entity 'potential' named entity 'sensitivity' named entity 'SIMILAR' named entity 'VIRUS' named entity 'UNDIAGNOSED' named entity 'SENSITIVITY' named entity 'LATER' named entity 'DATA' named entity 'COUNTS' named entity 'CASES' named entity 'UNDERSTOOD' named entity 'OBSERVED' named entity 'SPECIFICITY' named entity 'FALL' named entity 'POOR' named entity 'EITHER' named entity 'EARLY' named entity 'ERRORS' named entity 'epidemic' named entity 'values' named entity 'visualize' named entity 'cases' named entity 'peak' named entity 'originated' named entity 'remains' named entity 'During' named entity 'face' named entity 'viruses' named entity 'Canada' named entity 'epidemic' named entity 'confidence intervals' named entity 'epidemic' named entity 'COVID' named entity 'based' named entity 'COVID' named entity 'infection' named entity 'nasopharyngeal swab' named entity 'self-isolated' named entity 'SARS-CoV-2' named entity 'laboratory tests' named entity 'epidemic curve' named entity 'epidemic' named entity 'COVID-19 pandemic' named entity 'Alberta' named entity 'laboratory tests' named entity 'confidence intervals' named entity 'epidemic' named entity 'standard deviation' named entity 'epidemic curve' named entity 'Canada' named entity 'false negative' named entity '95%' named entity 'Alberta' named entity 'infectious disease outbreaks' named entity 'COVID-19' named entity 'epidemic curve' named entity 'Alberta' named entity 'APL' named entity 'Government of Alberta' named entity 'COVID-19 testing' named entity 'US FDA' named entity 'false positive' named entity 'false positives' named entity 'symptom' named entity 'test sensitivity' named entity 'standard deviation' named entity 'COVID' named entity 'Monte Carlo' named entity 'causal agent' named entity 'primers' named entity 'hospital settings' named entity 'long-term care' named entity 'Alberta' named entity 'infection' named entity 'sensitivity analysis' named entity 'epidemic'

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