About: Epidemiological Characteristics and Forecast of COVID-19 Outbreak in the Republic of Kazakhstan

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An Entity of Type : schema:ScholarlyArticle, within Data Space : wasabi.inria.fr associated with source document(s)

Attributes	Values
type	Academic Article research paper schema:ScholarlyArticle
isDefinedBy	Covid-on-the-Web dataset
has title	Epidemiological Characteristics and Forecast of COVID-19 Outbreak in the Republic of Kazakhstan
Creator	Glushkova, Natalya
Source	Medline; PMC
abstract	BACKGROUND: Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic entered Kazakhstan on 13 March 2020 and quickly spread over its territory. This study aimed at reporting on the rates of COVID-19 in the country and at making prognoses on cases, deaths, and recoveries through predictive modeling. Also, we attempted to forecast the needs in professional workforce depending on implementation of quarantine measures. METHODS: We calculated both national and local incidence, mortality and case-fatality rates, and made forecast modeling via classic susceptible-exposed-infected-removed (SEIR) model. The Health Workforce Estimator tool was utilized for forecast modeling of health care workers capacity. RESULTS: The vast majority of symptomatic patients had mild disease manifestations and the proportion of moderate disease was around 10%. According to the SEIR model, there will be 156 thousand hospitalized patients due to severe illness and 15.47 thousand deaths at the peak of an outbreak if no measures are implemented. Besides, this will substantially increase the need in professional medical workforce. Still, 50% compliance with quarantine may possibly reduce the deaths up to 3.75 thousand cases and the number of hospitalized up to 9.31 thousand cases at the peak. CONCLUSION: The outcomes of our study could be of interest for policymakers as they help to forecast the trends of COVID-19 outbreak, the demands for professional workforce, and to estimate the consequences of quarantine measures.
has issue date	2020-06-15(xsd:dateTime)
bibo:doi	10.3346/jkms.2020.35.e227
bibo:pmid	32567261
has license	cc-by-nc
sha1sum (hex)	3d074a40b1986948ae876506f8a8f349c6c820d8
schema:url	https://doi.org/10.3346/jkms.2020.35.e227
resource representing a document's title	Epidemiological Characteristics and Forecast of COVID-19 Outbreak in the Republic of Kazakhstan
has PubMed Central identifier	PMC7308140
has PubMed identifier	32567261
schema:publication	J Korean Med Sci
resource representing a document's body	covid:3d074a40b1986948ae876506f8a8f349c6c820d8#body_text
is schema:about of	named entity 'Workforce' named entity 'cases' named entity 'tool' named entity 'measures' named entity 'modeling' named entity 'outbreak' named entity 'professional' named entity 'HOSPITALIZED' named entity 'SYMPTOMATIC' named entity 'NEED' named entity 'DEMANDS' named entity 'MODEL' named entity 'INCREASE' named entity 'SEIR MODEL' named entity 'TRENDS' named entity 'forecast' named entity 'modeling' named entity 'moderate' named entity 'severe' named entity 'estimate' named entity 'peak' named entity 'quarantine' named entity 'SEIR' named entity 'case-fatality rates' named entity 'patients' named entity 'Almaty' named entity 'prognoses' named entity 'public health emergency of international concern' named entity 'quarantine' named entity 'quarantine' named entity 'pneumonia' named entity 'real-time database' named entity 'critical stage' named entity 'Ministry of Health' named entity 'East Kazakhstan' named entity 'prognosis' named entity 'dialysis' named entity 'quarantine' named entity 'current situation' named entity 'COVID-19' named entity 'CRS' named entity 'death rate' named entity 'Kostanay region' named entity 'Wuhan' named entity 'Kostanay' named entity 'Kazakhstan' named entity 'virus' named entity 'SARS-CoV-2' named entity 'oxygen therapy' named entity 'Republican' named entity 'mortality rate' named entity 'COVID-19' named entity 'immune cells' named entity 'antigen' named entity '13 March 2020' named entity 'intensive care unit' named entity 'infection' named entity 'CRS' named entity 'COVID-19 outbreak' named entity 'community transmission' named entity 'COVID-19 outbreak' named entity 'quarantine' named entity 'CoV' named entity 'SEIR' named entity 'COVID' named entity 'COVID-19 outbreak' named entity 'COVID-19 pandemic' named entity 'child care' named entity 'SEIR' named entity 'dyspnea' named entity 'intensive care unit' named entity 'cough' named entity 'SARS-CoV-2' named entity 'SARS' named entity 'lung' named entity 'respiratory failure' named entity 'infection' named entity 'WHO' named entity 'quarantine' named entity 'severe pneumonia' named entity 'Kazakhstan'

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