About: The frequently stated goal of COVID-19 control is to 'flatten the curve'; that is, to slow the epidemic by limiting contacts between infectious and susceptible individuals, and to reduce and delay peak numbers of cases and deaths. Here we investigate how the scale and dynamics of COVID-19 epidemics differ among 26 European countries in which the numbers of reported deaths varied more than 100-fold. Under lockdown, countries reporting fewer deaths in total also had lower peak death rates, as expected, but shorter rather than longer periods of epidemic growth. This empirical analysis highlights the benefits of intervening early to curtail COVID-19 epidemics: the cumulative number of deaths reported in each country by 20 June was 60-200 times the number reported by the date of lockdown.   Goto Sponge  NotDistinct  Permalink

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  • The frequently stated goal of COVID-19 control is to 'flatten the curve'; that is, to slow the epidemic by limiting contacts between infectious and susceptible individuals, and to reduce and delay peak numbers of cases and deaths. Here we investigate how the scale and dynamics of COVID-19 epidemics differ among 26 European countries in which the numbers of reported deaths varied more than 100-fold. Under lockdown, countries reporting fewer deaths in total also had lower peak death rates, as expected, but shorter rather than longer periods of epidemic growth. This empirical analysis highlights the benefits of intervening early to curtail COVID-19 epidemics: the cumulative number of deaths reported in each country by 20 June was 60-200 times the number reported by the date of lockdown.
subject
  • Epidemics
  • Biological hazards
  • History of education
  • Containment efforts related to the COVID-19 pandemic
  • Country lockdowns
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