About: Benefit-risk analysis of health benefits of routine childhood immunisation against the excess risk of SARS-CoV-2 infections during the Covid-19 pandemic in Africa

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About: Benefit-risk analysis of health benefits of routine childhood immunisation against the excess risk of SARS-CoV-2 infections during the Covid-19 pandemic in Africa Goto Sponge NotDistinct Permalink

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type	Academic Article research paper schema:ScholarlyArticle
isDefinedBy	Covid-on-the-Web dataset
title	Benefit-risk analysis of health benefits of routine childhood immunisation against the excess risk of SARS-CoV-2 infections during the Covid-19 pandemic in Africa
Creator	Jombart, Thibaut Liu, Yang Endo, Akira Funk, Sebastian Klepac, Petra Rosello, Alicia Kucharski, Adam Abbott, Sam Davies, Nicholas Diamond, Charlie Flasche, Stefan Gibbs, Hamish Gimma, Amy Hellewell, Joel Jit, Mark Sun, Fiona Prem, Kiesha Clifford, Samuel Hué, Stéphane Bosse, Nikos Eggo, Rosalind Jarvis, Christopher Medley, Graham Munday, James O'reilly, Kathleen Pearson, Carl Quilty, Billy Russell, Timothy Tully, Damien Van Zandvoort, Kevin Group, Working John Edmunds, W Abbas, Kaja Clark, Andrew Auzenbergs, Megan Deol, Arminder Emery, Jon Knight, Gwen Leclerc, Quentin Nightingale, Emily Procter, Simon Villabona-Arenas, Julian Cmmid Covid-19, Lshtm Dansereau, Emily Hogan, Dan Houben, J Mengistu, Todi
source	MedRxiv
abstract	Background: National immunisation programmes globally are at risk of suspension due to the severe health system constraints and physical distancing measures in place to mitigate the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic. Our aim is to compare the health benefits of sustaining routine childhood immunisation in Africa against the risk of acquiring SARS-CoV-2 infections through visiting routine vaccination service delivery points. Methods: We used two scenarios to approximate the child deaths that may be caused by immunisation coverage reductions during COVID-19 outbreaks. First, we used previously reported country-specific child mortality impact estimates of childhood immunisation for diphtheria, tetanus, pertussis, hepatitis B, Haemophilus influenzae type b, pneumococcal, rotavirus, measles, meningitis A, rubella, and yellow fever (DTP3, HepB3, Hib3, PCV3, RotaC, MCV1, MCV2, MenA, RCV, YFV) to approximate the future deaths averted before completing five years of age by routine childhood vaccination during a 6-month Covid-19 risk period without catch-up campaigns. Second, we analysed an alternative scenario that approximates the health benefits of sustaining routine childhood immunisation to only the child deaths averted from measles outbreaks during the Covid-19 risk period. The excess number of infections due to additional SARS-CoV-2 exposure during immunisation visits assumes that contact reducing interventions flatten the outbreak curve during the Covid-19 risk period, that 60% of the population will have been infected by the end of that period, that children can be infected by either vaccinators or during transport and that upon child infection the whole household would be infected. Country specific household age structure estimates and age dependent infection fatality rates are then applied to calculate the number of deaths attributable to the vaccination clinic visits. We present benefit-risk ratios for routine childhood immunisation alongside 95% uncertainty range estimates from probabilistic sensitivity analysis. Findings: For every one excess Covid-19 death attributable to SARS-CoV-2 infections acquired during routine vaccination clinic visits, there could be 143 (38 - 576) deaths in children prevented by sustaining routine childhood immunisation in Africa. The benefit-risk ratio for the vaccinated children, siblings, parents or adult care-givers, and older adults in the households of vaccinated children are 58,000 (3,200 - 21,350,000), 52,000 (2,800 - 18,884,000), 2,000 (393 - 12,000), and 157 (41 - 652) respectively. In the alternative scenario that approximates the health benefits to only the child deaths averted from measles outbreaks, the benefit-risk ratio to the households of vaccinated children is 5 (1 - 21) under these highly conservative assumptions and if the risk to only the vaccinated children is considered, the benefit-risk ratio is 2,000 (131 - 839,000). Interpretation: Our analysis suggests that the health benefits of deaths prevented by sustaining routine childhood immunisation in Africa far outweighs the excess risk of Covid-19 deaths associated with vaccination clinic visits. However, there are other factors that must be considered for strategic decision making to sustain routine childhood immunisation in African countries during the Covid-19 pandemic. These include logistical constraints of vaccine supply chain problems caused by the Covid-19 pandemic, reallocation of immunisation providers to other prioritised health services, healthcare staff shortages caused by SARS-CoV-2 infections among the staff, decreased demand for vaccination arising from community reluctance to visit vaccination clinics for fear of contracting SARS-CoV-2 infections, and infection risk to healthcare staff providing immunisation services as well as to their households and onward SARS-CoV-2 transmission into the wider community.
has issue date	2020-05-26(xsd:dateTime)
bibo:doi	10.1101/2020.05.19.20106278
has license	medrxiv
sha1sum (hex)	43e4d0b4b0eba3989f788ced75de07d8e190ffd1
schema:url	https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.05.19.20106278
resource representing a document's title	Benefit-risk analysis of health benefits of routine childhood immunisation against the excess risk of SARS-CoV-2 infections during the Covid-19 pandemic in Africa
resource representing a document's body	covid:43e4d0b4b0eba3989f788ced75de07d8e190ffd1#body_text
is schema:about of	named entity 'acquiring' named entity 'Centre' named entity 'immunisation' named entity 'Covid-19' named entity 'health' named entity 'SEVERE' named entity 'HEALTH SYSTEM' named entity 'ongoing' named entity 'sustaining' named entity 'programmes' named entity 'aim' named entity 'service' named entity 'immunisation programmes' named entity 'SARS-CoV-2' named entity 'Covid-19 pandemic' named entity 'Africa' named entity 'SARS-CoV-2' named entity 'LSHTM' named entity 'SARS-CoV-2' named entity 'SARS-CoV-2' named entity 'childhood immunisation' named entity 'vaccine' named entity 'low and middle income countries' named entity 'CC-BY 4.0 International license' named entity 'HIV' named entity 'alternative healthcare' named entity 'health services' named entity 'immunisation programme' named entity 'national health' named entity 'EPI' named entity 'antigen' named entity 'Bacillus Calmette-Guérin' named entity 'vaccination' named entity 'vaccination' named entity 'March 26' named entity 'MenA' named entity 'childhood immunisation' named entity 'DTP' named entity 'Covid'

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