About: Estimating and Projecting Air Passenger Traffic during the COVID-19 Coronavirus Outbreak and its Socio-Economic Impact

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Attributes	Values
type	Academic Article research paper schema:ScholarlyArticle
isDefinedBy	Covid-on-the-Web dataset
has title	Estimating and Projecting Air Passenger Traffic during the COVID-19 Coronavirus Outbreak and its Socio-Economic Impact
Creator	Natale, S Santamaria, F Spyratos, C Vespe, S
topic	covid:45de6f282c944c846d451b828b63a4db347c2ce9#this
Source	Elsevier; Medline; PMC
abstract	Due to the coronavirus global crisis, most countries have put in place restrictive measures in order to confine the pandemia and contain the number of casualties. Among the restrictive measures, air traffic suspension is certainly quite effective in reducing the mobility on the global scale in the short term but it also has high socio-economic impact on the long and short term. The main focus of this study is to collect and prepare data on air passengers traffic worldwide with the scope of analyze the impact of travel ban on the aviation sector. Based on historical data from January 2010 till October 2019, a forecasting model is implemented in order to set a reference baseline. Making use of airplane movements extracted from online flight tracking platforms and on-line booking systems, this study presents also a first assessment of recent changes in flight activity around the world as a result of the COVID-19 pandemic. To study the effects of air travel ban on aviation and in turn its socio-economic, several scenarios are constructed based on past pandemic crisis and the observed flight volumes. It turns out that, according to these hypothetical scenarios, in the first Quarter of 2020 the impact of aviation losses could have negatively reduced World GDP by 0.02% to 0.12% according to the observed data and, in the worst case scenarios, at the end of 2020 the loss could be as high as 1.41-1.67% and job losses may reach the value of 25-30 millions. Focusing on EU27, the GDP loss may amount to 1.66-1.98% by the end of 2020 and the number of job losses from 4.2 to 5 millions in the worst case scenarios. Some countries will be more affected than others in the short run and most European airlines companies will suffer from the travel ban. We hope that that these preliminary results may be of help for informed policy making design of exit strategies from this global crisis.
has issue date	2020-05-06(xsd:dateTime)
bibo:doi	10.1016/j.ssci.2020.104791
bibo:pmid	32377034
has license	no-cc
sha1sum (hex)	45de6f282c944c846d451b828b63a4db347c2ce9
schema:url	https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ssci.2020.104791
resource representing a document's title	Estimating and Projecting Air Passenger Traffic during the COVID-19 Coronavirus Outbreak and its Socio-Economic Impact
has PubMed Central identifier	PMC7200368
has PubMed identifier	32377034
schema:publication	Saf Sci
resource representing a document's body	covid:45de6f282c944c846d451b828b63a4db347c2ce9#body_text
is http://vocab.deri.ie/void#inDataset of	proxy:http/ns.inria.fr/covid19/45de6f282c944c846d451b828b63a4db347c2ce9
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