About: Assessment of Lockdown Effect in Some States and Overall India: A Predictive Mathematical Study on COVID-19 Outbreak

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type	Academic Article research paper schema:ScholarlyArticle
isDefinedBy	Covid-on-the-Web dataset
has title	Assessment of Lockdown Effect in Some States and Overall India: A Predictive Mathematical Study on COVID-19 Outbreak
Creator	Chattopadhyay, Joydev Rana, Sourav Sardar, Tridip Chattopadhyay, Nadim, Nadim, Sourav Rana, Joydev Sk, Shahid
Source	ArXiv; Elsevier; Medline; PMC
abstract	In the absence of neither an effective treatment or vaccine and with an incomplete understanding of the epidemiological cycle, Govt. has implemented a nationwide lockdown to reduce COVID-19 transmission in India. To study the effect of social distancing measure, we considered a new mathematical model on COVID-19 that incorporates lockdown effect. By validating our model to the data on notified cases from five different states and overall India, we estimated several epidemiologically important parameters as well as the basic reproduction number (R(0)). Combining the mechanistic mathematical model with different statistical forecast models, we projected notified cases in the six locations for the period May 17, 2020, till May 31, 2020. A global sensitivity analysis is carried out to determine the correlation of two epidemiologically measurable parameters on the lockdown effect and also on R(0). Our result suggests that lockdown will be effective in those locations where a higher percentage of symptomatic infection exists in the population. Furthermore, a large scale COVID-19 mass testing is required to reduce community infection. Ensemble model forecast suggested a high rise in the COVID-19 notified cases in most of the locations in the coming days. Furthermore, the trend of the effective reproduction number (R(t)) during the projection period indicates if the lockdown measures are completely removed after May 17, 2020, a high spike in notified cases may be seen in those locations. Finally, combining our results, we provided an effective lockdown policy to reduce future COVID-19 transmission in India.
has issue date	2020-07-08(xsd:dateTime)
bibo:doi	10.1016/j.chaos.2020.110078
bibo:pmid	32834620
has license	no-cc
sha1sum (hex)	46712a46f1ea3dde864eb121976b0144d68b8834
schema:url	https://doi.org/10.1016/j.chaos.2020.110078
resource representing a document's title	Assessment of Lockdown Effect in Some States and Overall India: A Predictive Mathematical Study on COVID-19 Outbreak
has PubMed Central identifier	PMC7345298
has PubMed identifier	32834620
schema:publication	Chaos Solitons Fractals
resource representing a document's body	covid:46712a46f1ea3dde864eb121976b0144d68b8834#body_text
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