About: Optimal COVID-19 epidemic control until vaccine deployment

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Attributes	Values
type	Academic Article research paper schema:ScholarlyArticle
isDefinedBy	Covid-on-the-Web dataset
title	Optimal COVID-19 epidemic control until vaccine deployment
Creator	Alizon, S Choisy, M Djidjou-Demasse, R Michalakis, Y Sofonea, M
source	MedRxiv
abstract	Since Dec 2019, the COVID-19 epidemic has spread over the globe creating one of the greatest pandemics ever witnessed. This epidemic wave will only begin to roll back once a critical proportion of the population is immunised, either by mounting natural immunity following infection, or by vaccination. The latter option can minimise the cost in terms of human lives but it requires to wait until a safe and efficient vaccine is developed, a period estimated to last at least 18 months. In this work, we use optimal control theory to explore the best strategy to implement while waiting for the vaccine. We seek a solution minimizing deaths and costs due to the implementation of the control strategy itself. We find that such a solution leads to an increasing level of control with a maximum reached near the fourth month of the epidemics and a steady decrease until vaccine deployment. This strategy strongly outperforms others with constant or cycling allocations of the same amount of resources to control the outbreak. This work opens new perspectives to mitigate the effects of the ongoing COVID-19 pandemics, and be used as a proof-of-concept in using mathematical modelling techniques to enlighten decision ma
has issue date	2020-04-06(xsd:dateTime)
bibo:doi	10.1101/2020.04.02.20049189
has license	medrxiv
sha1sum (hex)	475b615fd202273ccfb8b46a8135703d9874d4dc
schema:url	https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.04.02.20049189
resource representing a document's title	Optimal COVID-19 epidemic control until vaccine deployment
resource representing a document's body	covid:475b615fd202273ccfb8b46a8135703d9874d4dc#body_text
is schema:about of	named entity 'fourth' named entity 'pandemics' named entity 'leads' named entity 'mitigate' named entity 'maximum' named entity 'early times' named entity 'wave' named entity 'waiting' named entity 'wait' named entity 'control' named entity 'The' named entity 'Optimal' named entity 'DECREASE' named entity 'MONTH' named entity 'PROOF' named entity 'DEC' named entity 'FOLLOWING' named entity 'ESTIMATED' named entity 'LEVEL' named entity 'SPREAD' named entity 'CONTROL' named entity 'OPTIMAL' named entity 'LEADS' named entity 'CONTROL STRATEGY' named entity 'ONGOING' named entity 'TIMES' named entity 'INFECTION' named entity 'EFFECTS' named entity 'HEALTH MANAGEMENT' named entity 'USING' named entity 'USED' named entity 'BUT' named entity 'OF-' named entity 'LIVES' named entity 'INCREASING' named entity 'EARLY' named entity 'DUE TO' named entity 'DEPLOYMENT' named entity 'WAVE' named entity 'NATURAL IMMUNITY' named entity 'STRATEGY' named entity 'MAXIMUM' named entity 'DEPLOYMENT' named entity 'CONCEPT' named entity 'EFFICIENT' named entity 'MONTHS' named entity 'CONTROL THEORY' named entity 'BEST' named entity 'DEATHS' named entity 'NEAR' named entity 'STEADY' named entity 'CREATING' named entity 'TERMS' named entity 'USE' named entity 'SAFE' named entity 'FOURTH' named entity 'RESOURCES' named entity 'DECISION MAKING' named entity 'IMPLEMENTATION' named entity 'COST' named entity 'PANDEMICS' named entity 'MOUNTING' named entity 'ONE OF' named entity 'TO CONTROL' named entity 'SOLUTION' named entity 'PROPORTION' named entity 'ROLL' named entity 'COSTS' named entity 'MATHEMATICAL MODELLING' named entity 'OPENS' named entity 'GLOBE' named entity 'GREATEST' named entity 'OUTBREAK' named entity 'MODELLING TECHNIQUES' named entity 'PUBLIC HEALTH' named entity 'EITHER' named entity 'BEGIN' named entity 'OPTION' named entity 'VACCINE' named entity 'CONTROL' named entity 'PERIOD'

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