About: A note on the effects of epidemic forecasts on epidemic dynamics

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An Entity of Type : schema:ScholarlyArticle, within Data Space : wasabi.inria.fr associated with source document(s)

Attributes	Values
type	Academic Article research paper schema:ScholarlyArticle
isDefinedBy	Covid-on-the-Web dataset
title	A note on the effects of epidemic forecasts on epidemic dynamics
Creator	Pershing, Andrew Record, Nicholas
source	Medline; PMC
abstract	The purpose of a forecast, in making an estimate about the future, is to give people information to act on. In the case of a coupled human system, a change in human behavior caused by the forecast can alter the course of events that were the subject of the forecast. In this context, the forecast is an integral part of the coupled human system, with two-way feedback between forecast output and human behavior. However, forecasting programs generally do not examine how the forecast might affect the system in question. This study examines how such a coupled system works using a model of viral infection—the susceptible-infected-removed (SIR) model—when the model is used in a forecasting context. Human behavior is modified by making the contact rate responsive to other dynamics, including forecasts, of the SIR system. This modification creates two-way feedback between the forecast and the infection dynamics. Results show that a faster rate of response by a population to system dynamics or forecasts leads to a significant decline in peak infections. Responding to a forecast leads to a lower infection peak than responding to current infection levels. Inaccurate forecasts can lead to either higher or lower peak infections depending on whether the forecast under-or over-estimates the peak. The direction of inaccuracy in a forecast determines whether the outcome is better or worse for the population. While work is still needed to constrain model functional forms, forecast feedback can be an important component of epidemic dynamics that should be considered in response planning.
has issue date	2020-08-07(xsd:dateTime)
bibo:doi	10.7717/peerj.9649
bibo:pmid	32844061
has license	cc-by
sha1sum (hex)	481b1b4bdc91129a091ba71d575d92b8be0763f6
schema:url	https://doi.org/10.7717/peerj.9649
resource representing a document's title	A note on the effects of epidemic forecasts on epidemic dynamics
has PubMed Central identifier	PMC7416720
has PubMed identifier	32844061
schema:publication	PeerJ
resource representing a document's body	covid:481b1b4bdc91129a091ba71d575d92b8be0763f6#body_text
is schema:about of	named entity 'contact' named entity 'This' named entity 'affect' named entity 'viral' named entity 'current' named entity 'However' named entity 'forecast' named entity 'SUSCEPTIBLE' named entity 'LEAD' named entity 'MODIFIED BY' named entity 'FUNCTIONAL' named entity 'INACCURATE' named entity 'RATE' named entity 'USING' named entity 'WORSE' named entity 'PURPOSE' named entity 'CONTEXT' named entity 'PEOPLE' named entity 'THE PEAK' named entity 'WAY' named entity 'MODEL' named entity 'FORECASTING' named entity 'LEVELS' named entity 'NEEDED' named entity 'CHANGE IN' named entity 'WORK' named entity 'FUTURE' named entity 'DIRECTION' named entity 'DO NOT' named entity 'human behavior' named entity 'infections' named entity 'infection' named entity 'integral' named entity 'response' named entity 'feedback' named entity 'coupled' named entity 'forecast' named entity 'human' named entity 'forecasts' named entity 'subject' named entity 'forecasts' named entity 'infection' named entity 'infection' named entity 'epidemic' named entity 'infection' named entity 'Human behavior' named entity 'context' named entity 'coupled' named entity 'political forecasting' named entity 'human dynamics' named entity 'human actions' named entity 'decision making' named entity 'RCP8.5' named entity 'quarantine' named entity 'health care' named entity 'ethical considerations' named entity 'infection' named entity 'infection' named entity 'infection' named entity 'human behavior' named entity 'social distancing' named entity 'informs' named entity 'epidemics' named entity 'endangered species' named entity 'basic shape' named entity 'model behaviors' named entity 'infection' named entity 'COVID-19 pandemic' named entity 'Representative Concentration Pathways' named entity 'human behavior' named entity 'decision making' named entity 'Epidemic' named entity 'Epidemic' named entity 'change in behavior' named entity 'rate parameter' named entity 'health care' named entity 'human health' named entity 'epidemic' named entity 'Imperial College' named entity 'endangered species'

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