About: COVID-19 UK Lockdown Forecasts and R(0)

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An Entity of Type : schema:ScholarlyArticle, within Data Space : wasabi.inria.fr associated with source document(s)

Attributes	Values
type	Academic Article research paper schema:ScholarlyArticle
isDefinedBy	Covid-on-the-Web dataset
has title	COVID-19 UK Lockdown Forecasts and R(0)
Creator	Cakir, Banu Dropkin, Greg Moslehi, Roxana Paxton, Raheem
Source	Medline; PMC
abstract	Introduction: The first reported UK case of COVID-19 occurred on 30 January 2020. A lockdown from 24 March was partially relaxed on 10 May. One model to forecast disease spread depends on clinical parameters and transmission rates. Output includes the basic reproduction number R(0) and the log growth rate r in the exponential phase. Methods: Office for National Statistics data on deaths in England and Wales is used to estimate r. A likelihood for the transmission parameters is defined from a gaussian density for r using the mean and standard error of the estimate. Parameter samples from the Metropolis-Hastings algorithm lead to an estimate and credible interval for R(0) and forecasts for cases and deaths. Results: The UK initial log growth rate is r = 0.254 with s.e. 0.004. R(0) = 6.94 with 95% CI (6.52, 7.39). In a 12 week lockdown from 24 March with transmission parameters reduced throughout to 5% of their previous values, peaks of around 90,000 severely and 25,000 critically ill patients, and 44,000 cumulative deaths are expected by 16 June. With transmission rising from 5% in mid-April to reach 30%, 50,000 deaths and 475,000 active cases are expected in mid-June. Had such a lockdown begun on 17 March, around 30,000 (28,000, 32,000) fewer cumulative deaths would be expected by 9 June. Discussion: The R(0) estimate is compatible with some international estimates but over twice the value quoted by the UK government. An earlier lockdown could have saved many thousands of lives.
has issue date	2020-05-29(xsd:dateTime)
bibo:doi	10.3389/fpubh.2020.00256
bibo:pmid	32574315
has license	cc-by
sha1sum (hex)	513c8dfeaa436fe1ae228fbeb1b9fbf2f17174d8
schema:url	https://doi.org/10.3389/fpubh.2020.00256
resource representing a document's title	COVID-19 UK Lockdown Forecasts and R(0)
has PubMed Central identifier	PMC7274132
has PubMed identifier	32574315
schema:publication	Front Public Health
resource representing a document's body	covid:513c8dfeaa436fe1ae228fbeb1b9fbf2f17174d8#body_text
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