About: Using ICU data to improve the real-time estimation of the effective reproductive number of the COVID-19 epidemic in 9 European countries

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About: Using ICU data to improve the real-time estimation of the effective reproductive number of the COVID-19 epidemic in 9 European countries Goto Sponge NotDistinct Permalink

An Entity of Type : schema:ScholarlyArticle, within Data Space : wasabi.inria.fr associated with source document(s)

Attributes	Values
type	Academic Article research paper schema:ScholarlyArticle
isDefinedBy	Covid-on-the-Web dataset
has title	Using ICU data to improve the real-time estimation of the effective reproductive number of the COVID-19 epidemic in 9 European countries
Creator	Hurtado, Tinajero,
Source	MedRxiv
abstract	We replicate a recent study by the Imperial College COVID-19 Response Team (Flaxman et al, 2020) that estimates both the effective reproductive number, Rt, of the current COVID-19 epidemic in 11 European countries, and the impact of different nonpharmaceutical interventions that have been implemented to try to contain the epidemic. We improve on their estimation by using data from the number of patients in intensive care, which provides two advantages over the number of deaths: first, it can be used to construct a signal with less bias: as the healthcare system of a country reaches saturation, the mortality rate would be expected to increase, which would bias the estimates of Rt and of the impact of measures implemented to contain the epidemic; and second, it is a signal with less lag, as the time from onset of symptoms to ICU admission is shorter than the time from onset to death. The intensive care signal we use is not just the number of people in ICU, as this would also be biased if the healthcare system has reached saturation. Instead, we estimate the daily demand of intensive care, as the sum of two components: the part that is satisfied (new ICU admissions) and the part that is not (which results in excess mortality). Thanks to the advantages of this ICU signal in terms of timeliness and bias, we find that most of the countries in the study have already reached Rt<1 with 95% confidence (Italy, Spain, Austria, Denmark, France, Norway and Switzerland, but not Belgium or Sweden), whereas the original methodology of Flaxman et al (2020), even with updated data, would only find Rt<1 with 95% confidence for Italy and Switzerland.
has issue date	2020-04-17(xsd:dateTime)
bibo:doi	10.1101/2020.04.13.20063388
has license	medrxiv
sha1sum (hex)	543a91a00962e3e23102d7e8cf1f1e4d45df5865
schema:url	https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.04.13.20063388
resource representing a document's title	Using ICU data to improve the real-time estimation of the effective reproductive number of the COVID-19 epidemic in 9 European countries
resource representing a document's body	covid:543a91a00962e3e23102d7e8cf1f1e4d45df5865#body_text
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