About: Transmission potential of influenza A/H7N9, February to May 2013, China

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About: Transmission potential of influenza A/H7N9, February to May 2013, China Goto Sponge NotDistinct Permalink

An Entity of Type : schema:ScholarlyArticle, within Data Space : wasabi.inria.fr associated with source document(s)

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type	Academic Article research paper schema:ScholarlyArticle
isDefinedBy	Covid-on-the-Web dataset
has title	Transmission potential of influenza A/H7N9, February to May 2013, China
Creator	Chowell, Gerardo Simonsen, Lone Viboud, Cécile Towers, Sherry Miller, Mark
Source	Medline; PMC
abstract	BACKGROUND: On 31 March 2013, the first human infections with the novel influenza A/H7N9 virus were reported in Eastern China. The outbreak expanded rapidly in geographic scope and size, with a total of 132 laboratory-confirmed cases reported by 3 June 2013, in 10 Chinese provinces and Taiwan. The incidence of A/H7N9 cases has stalled in recent weeks, presumably as a consequence of live bird market closures in the most heavily affected areas. Here we compare the transmission potential of influenza A/H7N9 with that of other emerging pathogens and evaluate the impact of intervention measures in an effort to guide pandemic preparedness. METHODS: We used a Bayesian approach combined with a SEIR (Susceptible-Exposed-Infectious-Removed) transmission model fitted to daily case data to assess the reproduction number (R) of A/H7N9 by province and to evaluate the impact of live bird market closures in April and May 2013. Simulation studies helped quantify the performance of our approach in the context of an emerging pathogen, where human-to-human transmission is limited and most cases arise from spillover events. We also used alternative approaches to estimate R based on individual-level information on prior exposure and compared the transmission potential of influenza A/H7N9 with that of other recent zoonoses. RESULTS: Estimates of R for the A/H7N9 outbreak were below the epidemic threshold required for sustained human-to-human transmission and remained near 0.1 throughout the study period, with broad 95% credible intervals by the Bayesian method (0.01 to 0.49). The Bayesian estimation approach was dominated by the prior distribution, however, due to relatively little information contained in the case data. We observe a statistically significant deceleration in growth rate after 6 April 2013, which is consistent with a reduction in A/H7N9 transmission associated with the preemptive closure of live bird markets. Although confidence intervals are broad, the estimated transmission potential of A/H7N9 appears lower than that of recent zoonotic threats, including avian influenza A/H5N1, swine influenza H3N2sw and Nipah virus. CONCLUSION: Although uncertainty remains high in R estimates for H7N9 due to limited epidemiological information, all available evidence points to a low transmission potential. Continued monitoring of the transmission potential of A/H7N9 is critical in the coming months as intervention measures may be relaxed and seasonal factors could promote disease transmission in colder months.
has issue date	2013-10-02(xsd:dateTime)
bibo:doi	10.1186/1741-7015-11-214
bibo:pmid	24083506
has license	cc-by
sha1sum (hex)	55844fc8a5cb75ffa1a249436ad30d6d93792df5
schema:url	https://doi.org/10.1186/1741-7015-11-214
resource representing a document's title	Transmission potential of influenza A/H7N9, February to May 2013, China
has PubMed Central identifier	PMC3851127
has PubMed identifier	24083506
schema:publication	BMC Med
resource representing a document's body	covid:55844fc8a5cb75ffa1a249436ad30d6d93792df5#body_text
is schema:about of	named entity 'weeks' named entity 'scope' named entity 'reported' named entity 'influenza A' named entity 'bird' named entity 'Transmission' named entity 'CASES REPORTED' named entity 'POTENTIAL' named entity 'IMPACT' named entity 'HUMAN' named entity 'MEASURES' named entity 'INFLUENZA A' named entity 'JUNE' named entity 'RAPIDLY' named entity 'EASTERN' named entity 'INCIDENCE' named entity 'AREAS' named entity 'PREPAREDNESS' named entity 'REPORTED' named entity 'CHINESE' named entity 'CASES' named entity 'REPORTED BY' named entity 'EFFORT' named entity 'BIRD' named entity 'STALLED' named entity 'CONSEQUENCE OF' named entity 'INFECTIONS' named entity 'EXPANDED ' named entity 'OUTBREAK' named entity 'SCOPE' named entity 'BACKGROUND' named entity 'TRANSMISSION' named entity 'WEEKS' named entity 'COMPARE' named entity 'RECENT' named entity 'VIRUS' named entity 'LIVE' named entity 'CHINA' named entity 'EVALUATE' named entity '132' named entity 'GEOGRAPHIC' named entity 'TRANSMISSION' named entity 'HERE' named entity 'TO GUIDE' named entity 'PANDEMIC' named entity 'INFLUENZA A' named entity 'POTENTIAL' named entity 'AFFECTED' named entity 'SIZE' named entity 'PATHOGENS' named entity 'TOTAL' named entity 'MARKET' named entity 'TAIWAN' named entity 'NOVEL' named entity 'MARCH' named entity 'INTERVENTION' covid:arg/55844fc8a5cb75ffa1a249436ad30d6d93792df5 named entity 'cases' named entity 'H7N9' named entity 'size' named entity 'stalled' named entity 'emerging pathogens' named entity 'transmissibility' named entity 'airborne transmission' named entity 'Zhejiang' named entity '0.01' named entity '1918 pandemic' named entity 'mainland China' named entity 'Shanghai' named entity '0.51' named entity 'zoonotic' named entity 'Negative Binomial distribution' named entity 'Reproduction number' named entity 'disease-free' named entity 'swine influenza' named entity '95% CI' named entity 'confidence intervals'

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