About: Preliminary estimation of the basic reproduction number of novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV) in China, from 2019 to 2020: A data-driven analysis in the early phase of the outbreak

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About: Preliminary estimation of the basic reproduction number of novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV) in China, from 2019 to 2020: A data-driven analysis in the early phase of the outbreak Goto Sponge NotDistinct Permalink

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type	Academic Article research paper schema:ScholarlyArticle
isDefinedBy	Covid-on-the-Web dataset
has title	Preliminary estimation of the basic reproduction number of novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV) in China, from 2019 to 2020: A data-driven analysis in the early phase of the outbreak
Creator	Yang, Lin Gao, Daozhou He, Daihai Lou, Yijun Ran, Jinjun Wang, Weiming Zhao, Shi Lin, Qianyin Yang, Guangpu Musa, Salihu Wang, Maggie
Source	Elsevier; Medline; PMC
abstract	BACKGROUNDS: An ongoing outbreak of a novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV) pneumonia hit a major city in China, Wuhan, December 2019 and subsequently reached other provinces/regions of China and other countries. We present estimates of the basic reproduction number, R(0), of 2019-nCoV in the early phase of the outbreak. METHODS: Accounting for the impact of the variations in disease reporting rate, we modelled the epidemic curve of 2019-nCoV cases time series, in mainland China from January 10 to January 24, 2020, through the exponential growth. With the estimated intrinsic growth rate (γ), we estimated R(0) by using the serial intervals (SI) of two other well-known coronavirus diseases, MERS and SARS, as approximations for the true unknown SI. FINDINGS: The early outbreak data largely follows the exponential growth. We estimated that the mean R(0) ranges from 2.24 (95%CI: 1.96–2.55) to 3.58 (95%CI: 2.89–4.39) associated with 8-fold to 2-fold increase in the reporting rate. We demonstrated that changes in reporting rate substantially affect estimates of R(0). CONCLUSION: The mean estimate of R(0) for the 2019-nCoV ranges from 2.24 to 3.58, and is significantly larger than 1. Our findings indicate the potential of 2019-nCoV to cause outbreaks.
has issue date	2020-01-30(xsd:dateTime)
bibo:doi	10.1016/j.ijid.2020.01.050
bibo:pmid	32007643
has license	no-cc
sha1sum (hex)	5a64d8be518b46570d2567a704fc8d6d95bd1008
schema:url	https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijid.2020.01.050
resource representing a document's title	Preliminary estimation of the basic reproduction number of novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV) in China, from 2019 to 2020: A data-driven analysis in the early phase of the outbreak
has PubMed Central identifier	PMC7110798
has PubMed identifier	32007643
schema:publication	Int J Infect Dis
resource representing a document's body	covid:5a64d8be518b46570d2567a704fc8d6d95bd1008#body_text
is schema:about of	named entity 'AFFECT' named entity 'EARLY' named entity 'FOLD' named entity 'MEAN' named entity 'OUR' named entity '2019-NCOV' named entity 'LARGER' named entity 'KNOWN' named entity 'FINDINGS' named entity 'PRESENT' named entity 'MERS' named entity 'REPORTING RATE' named entity 'HIT' named entity 'ONGOING' named entity '28G' named entity 'Methods' named entity 'affect' named entity 'MAINLAND CHINA' named entity 'SARS' named entity 'TRUE' named entity 'FOLLOWS' named entity 'USING' named entity 'PNEUMONIA' named entity 'NOVEL CORONAVIRUS' named entity 'LARGELY' named entity 'VARIATIONS' named entity 'DISEASES' named entity 'CITY' named entity 'A MAJOR' named entity 'UNKNOWN' named entity 'IMPACT' named entity 'MODELLED' named entity 'INTERVALS' named entity 'CAUSE' named entity 'SERIAL' named entity 'ESTIMATES' named entity 'JANUARY' named entity 'INTRINSIC' named entity 'COUNTRIES' named entity 'FOLD INCREASE' named entity 'CURVE' named entity 'GROWTH RATE' named entity 'CHANGES' named entity 'DECEMBER' named entity 'CHINA' named entity 'PHASE' named entity 'TIME SERIES' named entity 'DEMONSTRATED' named entity 'EXPONENTIAL GROWTH' named entity 'EPIDEMIC' named entity 'DATA' named entity 'ACCOUNTING' named entity 'CORONAVIRUS' named entity 'CASES' named entity 'POTENTIAL' named entity 'METHODS' named entity '2019' named entity 'ESTIMATE' named entity 'ESTIMATED' named entity 'OUTBREAK' named entity 'ASSOCIATED WITH' named entity 'WUHAN' named entity 'DISEASE' named entity 'CONCLUSION' named entity 'BASIC REPRODUCTION NUMBER' covid:arg/5a64d8be518b46570d2567a704fc8d6d95bd1008 named entity 'ongoing' named entity 'ranges' named entity 'data' named entity 'outbreak' named entity 'mainland China'

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