About: Climate effect on COVID-19 spread rate: an online surveillance tool

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An Entity of Type : schema:ScholarlyArticle, within Data Space : wasabi.inria.fr associated with source document(s)

Attributes	Values
type	Academic Article research paper schema:ScholarlyArticle
isDefinedBy	Covid-on-the-Web dataset
has title	Climate effect on COVID-19 spread rate: an online surveillance tool
Creator	Aronson Md, Doron Caspi, Gil Caspi, Oren Hashomer, Tel Lund Kristensen, Søren Mha, M Rossenberg Msc, Oran Shalit Phd, Uri Shina, Avi
Source	MedRxiv
abstract	Background: COVID-19 outbreak poses an unprecedented challenge for societies, healthcare organizations and economies. In the present analysis we coupled climate data with COVID-19 spread rates worldwide, and in a single country (USA). Methods: Data of confirmed COVID-19 cases was derived from the COVID-19 Global Cases by the CSSE at Johns Hopkins University up to March 19, 2020. We assessed disease spread by two measures: replication rate (RR), the slope of the logarithmic curve of confirmed cases, and the rate of spread (RoS), the slope of the linear regression of the logarithmic curve. Results: Based on predefined criteria, the mean COVID-19 RR was significantly lower in warm climate countries (0.12± 0.02) compared with cold countries (0.24± 0.01), (P<0.0001). Similarly, RoS was significantly lower in warm climate countries 0.12± 0.02 vs. 0.25± 0.01 than in cold climate countries (P<0.001). In all countries (independent of climate classification) both RR and RoS displayed a moderate negative correlation with temperature R= -0.69, 95% confidence interval [CI], -0.87 to -0.36; P<0.001 and R= -0.72, 95% confidence interval [CI], -0.87 to -0.36; P<0.001, respectively. We identified a similar moderate negative correlation with the dew point temperature. Additional climate variables did not display a significant correlation with neither RR nor RoS. Finally, in an ancillary analysis, COVID-19 intra-country model using an inter-state analysis of the USA did not identify yet correlation between climate parameters and RR or RoS as of March, 19, 2020. Conclusions: Our analysis suggests a plausible negative correlation between warmer climate and COVID-19 spread rate as defined by RR and RoS worldwide. This initial correlation should be interpreted cautiously and be further validated over time, the pandemic is at different stages in various countries as well as in regions within these countries. As such, some associations may be more affected by local transmission patterns rather than by climate. Importantly, we provide an online surveillance dashboard (https://covid19.net.technion.ac.il/) to further assess the association between climate parameters and outbreak dynamics worldwide as time goes by
has issue date	2020-03-30(xsd:dateTime)
bibo:doi	10.1101/2020.03.26.20044727
has license	medrxiv
sha1sum (hex)	6ca75843aba0b8a3a69c1604d4a379d5d6dda063
schema:url	https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.03.26.20044727
resource representing a document's title	Climate effect on COVID-19 spread rate: an online surveillance tool
resource representing a document's body	covid:6ca75843aba0b8a3a69c1604d4a379d5d6dda063#body_text
is schema:about of	named entity 'MEASURES' named entity 'RATE' named entity 'SINGLE' named entity 'COVID-19' named entity 'ANALYSIS' named entity 'SLOPE' named entity 'OUTBREAK' named entity 'GraphPad Prism' named entity 'coronavirus' named entity 'coronavirus' named entity 'March 30, 2020' named entity 'Coronavirus' named entity '3.5' named entity 'northern hemisphere' named entity 'COVID-19' named entity 'COVID-19' named entity 'statistically significant' named entity 'COVID-19' named entity 'JHU' named entity 'COVID-19' named entity 'peer review' named entity 'medRxiv' named entity 'COVID' named entity 'Italy' named entity 'peer review' named entity 'peer review' named entity 'disease transmission' named entity 'medRxiv' named entity 'economies' named entity 'COVID-19' named entity 'SARS-CoV' named entity 'diagnostic testing' named entity 'Statistical analysis' named entity 'Wuhan' named entity 'dew point' named entity 'COVID-19' named entity 'March 30, 2020' named entity 'quarantine' named entity 'COVID' named entity 'COVID-19' named entity 'COVID' named entity 'medRxiv' named entity 'influenza' named entity 'peer review' named entity 'Interquartile range' named entity 'COVID' named entity 'Italy' named entity 'coronavirus' named entity 'COVID-19' named entity 'COVID-19 pandemic' named entity 'Celsius' named entity 'medRxiv' named entity 'medRxiv' named entity 'dew point' named entity 'medRxiv' named entity 'March 9, 2020' named entity 'March 9' named entity 'medRxiv' named entity 'COVID' named entity 'incubation period' named entity '0.01' named entity 'medRxiv' named entity 'COVID-19' named entity 'COVID' named entity 'China' named entity 'COVID-19' named entity 'medRxiv' named entity 'COVID-19 pandemic' named entity 'SARS-CoV' named entity 'COVID-19' named entity 'negatively correlated' named entity 'COVID' named entity 'coronavirus' named entity 'coronavirus' named entity 'socioeconomic status' named entity 'psychosocial' named entity 'severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus'

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