About: The impact of containment measures and air temperature on mitigating the transmission of COVID-19: a novel data-based comprehensive modeling analysis

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About: The impact of containment measures and air temperature on mitigating the transmission of COVID-19: a novel data-based comprehensive modeling analysis Goto Sponge NotDistinct Permalink

An Entity of Type : schema:ScholarlyArticle, within Data Space : wasabi.inria.fr associated with source document(s)

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type	Academic Article research paper schema:ScholarlyArticle
isDefinedBy	Covid-on-the-Web dataset
has title	The impact of containment measures and air temperature on mitigating the transmission of COVID-19: a novel data-based comprehensive modeling analysis
Creator	Liu, Di Zhang, Lei Wang, Y Wang, Yaping Zhang, L Liu, ( Prof, ; Su, Bo Ge, Sikai Ji, Tingting Phd, Su Pu, M Pu, Miao Tai, ( Tai, Qidong
Source	MedRxiv
abstract	Background The COVID-19 is spreading worldwide, early non-pharmaceutical Interventions (NPIs) is crucial for mitigating COVID-19 epidemic. We aim to evaluate the impact of containment measures and the epidemic features of COVID-19 under social NPIs in Mainland China. Methods Under the strict social NPIs, the spreading pattern of COVID-19 in China has changed into mostly clustered intra-household or intro-acquaintance transmission, and we established a stochastic NPIs model, named ScEIQRsh to fit the epidemic and NPIs data of each province in China. Results This ScEIQRsh model could be well fitted with both the reported number of accumulative confirmed cases and epidemiological survey (EPS)-based quarantined cases of each province in China. We found that the median transmission rate of COVID-19 among acquaintances was 10.22 (IQR 8.47, 12.35) across Mainland China and the COVID-19 spreading was prevented by NPIs implementation within 25-30 days. Among NPIs, measures to diminish contactable susceptible (Sc), such as staying home, travel constraint etc. and measures to avoid delay of diagnosis and hospitalized isolation ({eta}) were more effective than EPS-based quarantine ({kappa},{rho} or surveyQ). Upon the fitted models, the proportion of asymptomatic infectors was determined to be 14.88% (IQR 8.17%, 25.37%). The median incubation period and communicable period of COVID-19 under NPIs were 4.16 (IQR 3.60, 4.71) and 6.77 (IQR 4.53, 10.36) days respectively, and the median time from exposed to being contagious was 2.39 (IQR 2.26, 2.56) days. Besides, we identified that the optimal temperature for COVID-19 spreading was in the range of 5{degrees}C-14{degrees}C. Conclusion This study provided useful suggestions about NPI strategy for the prevention of COVID-19 spreading, which should be helpful for the control of COVID-19, as well as other similar infectious disease.
has issue date	2020-05-16(xsd:dateTime)
bibo:doi	10.1101/2020.05.12.20099267
has license	medrxiv
sha1sum (hex)	763af95c8fd5e22193615929ff7fe065f30f6011
schema:url	https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.05.12.20099267
resource representing a document's title	The impact of containment measures and air temperature on mitigating the transmission of COVID-19: a novel data-based comprehensive modeling analysis
resource representing a document's body	covid:763af95c8fd5e22193615929ff7fe065f30f6011#body_text
is schema:about of	named entity 'measures' named entity 'containment' named entity 'FEATURES' named entity 'NON-' named entity 'MEASURES' named entity 'EARLY' named entity 'COVID' named entity 'COVID-19' named entity 'COVID-19' named entity 'China' named entity 'cost function' named entity 'PCR' named entity 'COVID' named entity 'global health' named entity 'COVID' named entity 'SARS-COV-2' named entity 'coronavirus' named entity 'curve fitting' named entity 'source code' named entity 'COVID' named entity 'asymptomatic infection' named entity 'COVID-19' named entity 'daily air' named entity 'COVID' named entity 'air temperature' named entity 'COVID' named entity 'COVID' named entity 'medRxiv' named entity 'air temperature' named entity 'stochastic' named entity 'peer review' named entity 'preprint' named entity 'preprint' named entity 'Southwest China' named entity 'coronavirus disease' named entity 'China' named entity 'Bernoulli distribution' named entity 'incubation period' named entity 'epidemiological data' named entity 'quarantine' named entity 'air temperature' named entity 'preprint' named entity 'random variable' named entity 'COVID' named entity 'symptom' named entity 'contact tracing' named entity 'quarantine' named entity 'preprint' named entity 'COVID-19' named entity 'COVID' named entity 'quarantine' named entity 'peer review' named entity 'Hubei' named entity 'preprint' named entity 'clinical characteristics' named entity 'LOESS' named entity 'quarantine' named entity 'preprint' named entity 'preprint' named entity 'quarantine' named entity 'COVID-19' named entity 'COVID-19' named entity 'CC-BY-NC-ND 4.0' named entity 'air temperature' named entity 'preprint' named entity 'preprint' named entity 'preprint' named entity 'Mainland China' named entity 'medRxiv' named entity 'medRxiv' named entity 'COVID-19'

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