About: COVID-19 outbreak in Wuhan demonstrates the limitations of publicly available case numbers for epidemiological modelling.

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About: COVID-19 outbreak in Wuhan demonstrates the limitations of publicly available case numbers for epidemiological modelling. Goto Sponge NotDistinct Permalink

An Entity of Type : schema:ScholarlyArticle, within Data Space : wasabi.inria.fr associated with source document(s)

Attributes	Values
type	Academic Article research paper schema:ScholarlyArticle
isDefinedBy	Covid-on-the-Web dataset
has title	COVID-19 outbreak in Wuhan demonstrates the limitations of publicly available case numbers for epidemiological modelling.
Creator	Bai, Fan Hasenauer, Jan Alamoudi, Emad Dudkin, Erika Fuhrmann, Lara Merkt, Simon Raimúndez, Elba Vanhoefer, Jakob
Source	MedRxiv
abstract	Epidemiological models are widely used to analyse the spread of diseases such as the global COVID-19 pandemic caused by SARS-CoV-2. However, all models are based on simplifying assumptions and on sparse data. This limits the reliability of parameter estimates and predictions. In this manuscript, we demonstrate the relevance of these limitations by performing a study of the COVID-19 outbreak in Wuhan, China. We perform parameter estimation, uncertainty analysis and model selection for a range of established epidemiological models. Amongst others, we employ Markov chain Monte Carlo sampling, parameter and prediction profile calculation algorithms. Our results show that parameter estimates and predictions obtained for several established models on the basis of reported case numbers can be subject to substantial uncertainty. More importantly, estimates were often unrealistic and the confidence / credibility intervals did not cover plausible values of critical parameters obtained using different approaches. These findings suggest, amongst others, that several models are over-simplistic and that the reported case numbers provide often insufficient information.
has issue date	2020-04-22(xsd:dateTime)
bibo:doi	10.1101/2020.04.19.20071597
has license	medrxiv
sha1sum (hex)	7812b2516941dcc3cdb591f771db1196f2527add
schema:url	https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.04.19.20071597
resource representing a document's title	COVID-19 outbreak in Wuhan demonstrates the limitations of publicly available case numbers for epidemiological modelling.
resource representing a document's body	covid:7812b2516941dcc3cdb591f771db1196f2527add#body_text
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