About: The spread of COVID-19 during the initial phase of the first half of 2020 was curtailed to a larger or lesser extent through measures of social distancing imposed by most countries. In this work, we link directly, through machine learning techniques, infection data at a country level to a single number that signifies social distancing effectiveness. We assume that the standard SIR model gives a reasonable description of the dynamics of spreading, and thus the social distancing aspect can be modeled through time-dependent infection rates that are imposed externally. We use an exponential ansatz to analyze the SIR model, find an exact solution for the time-independent infection rate, and derive a simple first-order differential equation for the time-dependent infection rate as a function of the infected population. Using infected number data from the%22first wave%22of the infection from eight countries, and through physics-informed machine learning, we extract the degree of linear dependence in social distancing that led to the specific infections. We find that in the two extremes are Greece, with the highest decay slope on one side, and the US on the other with a practically flat%22decay%22. The hierarchy of slopes is compatible with the effectiveness of the pandemic containment in each country. Finally, we train our network with data after the end of the analyzed period, and we make week-long predictions for the current phase of the infection that appear to be very close to the actual infection values.   Goto Sponge  NotDistinct  Permalink

An Entity of Type : fabio:Abstract, within Data Space : wasabi.inria.fr associated with source document(s)

AttributesValues
type
value
  • The spread of COVID-19 during the initial phase of the first half of 2020 was curtailed to a larger or lesser extent through measures of social distancing imposed by most countries. In this work, we link directly, through machine learning techniques, infection data at a country level to a single number that signifies social distancing effectiveness. We assume that the standard SIR model gives a reasonable description of the dynamics of spreading, and thus the social distancing aspect can be modeled through time-dependent infection rates that are imposed externally. We use an exponential ansatz to analyze the SIR model, find an exact solution for the time-independent infection rate, and derive a simple first-order differential equation for the time-dependent infection rate as a function of the infected population. Using infected number data from the%22first wave%22of the infection from eight countries, and through physics-informed machine learning, we extract the degree of linear dependence in social distancing that led to the specific infections. We find that in the two extremes are Greece, with the highest decay slope on one side, and the US on the other with a practically flat%22decay%22. The hierarchy of slopes is compatible with the effectiveness of the pandemic containment in each country. Finally, we train our network with data after the end of the analyzed period, and we make week-long predictions for the current phase of the infection that appear to be very close to the actual infection values.
subject
  • Quarantine
  • Epidemics
  • Epidemiology
  • Infectious diseases
  • Southern European countries
  • Differential calculus
  • Medical hygiene
  • Exact solutions in general relativity
part of
is abstract of
is hasSource of
Faceted Search & Find service v1.13.91 as of Mar 24 2020


Alternative Linked Data Documents: Sponger | ODE     Content Formats:       RDF       ODATA       Microdata      About   
This material is Open Knowledge   W3C Semantic Web Technology [RDF Data]
OpenLink Virtuoso version 07.20.3229 as of Jul 10 2020, on Linux (x86_64-pc-linux-gnu), Single-Server Edition (94 GB total memory)
Data on this page belongs to its respective rights holders.
Virtuoso Faceted Browser Copyright © 2009-2025 OpenLink Software