About: The impact of contact tracing and household bubbles on deconfinement strategies for COVID-19: an individual-based modelling study

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About: The impact of contact tracing and household bubbles on deconfinement strategies for COVID-19: an individual-based modelling study Goto Sponge NotDistinct Permalink

An Entity of Type : schema:ScholarlyArticle, within Data Space : wasabi.inria.fr associated with source document(s)

Attributes	Values
type	Academic Article research paper schema:ScholarlyArticle
isDefinedBy	Covid-on-the-Web dataset
title	The impact of contact tracing and household bubbles on deconfinement strategies for COVID-19: an individual-based modelling study
Creator	Beutels, Philippe Willem, Lander Hens, Niel Coletti, Pietro Faes, Christel Kuylen, Elise Libin, Pieter Abrams, Steven Covid19, Simid Herzog, Sereina Møgelmose, Signe Petrof, Oana Wambua, James
source	MedRxiv
abstract	Background. The rising COVID-19 pandemic caused many governments to impose policies restricting social interactions. These policies have slowed down the spread of the SARS-CoV-2 virus to the extent that restric- tions can be gradually lifted. Models can be useful to assess the consequences of deconfinement strategies with respect to business, school and leisure activities. Methods. We adapted the individual-based model %22STRIDE%22 to simulate interactions between the 11 million inhabitants of Belgium at the levels of households, workplaces, schools and communities. We calibrated our model to observed hospital incidence and seroprevalence data. STRIDE can explore contact tracing options and account for repetitive leisure contacts in extended household settings (so called %22household bubbles%22) with varying levels of connectivity. Findings. Household bubbles have the potential to reduce the number of COVID-19 hospital admissions by up to 90%. The effectiveness of contact tracing depends on its timing, as it becomes futile more than 4 days after the index case developed symptoms. Assuming that children have a lower level of susceptibility and lower probability to experience symptomatic SARS-CoV-2 infection, (partial) school closure options have relatively little impact on COVID-19 burden. Interpretation. Not only the absolute number and intensity of physical contacts drive the transmission dynamics and COVID-19 burden, also their repetitiveness is influential. Contact tracing seems essential for a controlled and persistent release of lockdown measures, but requires timely compliance to testing, reporting and self-isolation. Rapid tracing and testing, and communication ensuring continued involvement of the population are therefore essential.
has issue date	2020-07-02(xsd:dateTime)
bibo:doi	10.1101/2020.07.01.20144444
has license	medrxiv
sha1sum (hex)	7ad2bef1af93f50b80bc136c709a081f8a4ac4e5
schema:url	https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.07.01.20144444
resource representing a document's title	The impact of contact tracing and household bubbles on deconfinement strategies for COVID-19: an individual-based modelling study
resource representing a document's body	covid:7ad2bef1af93f50b80bc136c709a081f8a4ac4e5#body_text
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