About: Estimation and prediction of COVID-19 cases in Brazilian metropolises

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An Entity of Type : schema:ScholarlyArticle, within Data Space : wasabi.inria.fr associated with source document(s)

Attributes	Values
type	Academic Article research paper schema:ScholarlyArticle
isDefinedBy	Covid-on-the-Web dataset
title	Estimation and prediction of COVID-19 cases in Brazilian metropolises
Creator	Cestari, Feitosa Florêncio, Raquel Jó, George Lúcia, Maria Moreira, Pereira, Duarte Ribeiro, Virna Sousa, Bezerra Thereza, Maria
source	Medline; PMC
abstract	OBJECTIVE: to estimate the transmission rate, the epidemiological peak, and the number of deaths by the new coronavirus. METHOD: a mathematical and epidemiological model of susceptible, infected, and recovered cases was applied to the nine Brazilian capitals with the highest number of cases of the infection. The number of cases for the 80 days following the first case was estimated by solving the differential equations. The results were logarithmized and compared with the actual values to observe the model fit. In all scenarios, it was considered that no preventive measures had been taken. RESULTS: the nine metropolises studied showed an upward curve of confirmed cases of COVID-19. The prediction data point to the peak of the infection between late April and early May. Fortaleza and Manaus had the highest transmission rates (≥2·0 and ≥1·8, respectively). Rio de Janeiro may have the largest number of infected people (692,957) and Florianópolis the smallest (24,750). CONCLUSION: the estimates of the transmission rate, epidemiological peak, and number of deaths from coronavirus in Brazilian metropolises presented expressive and important numbers the Brazilian Ministry of Health needs to consider. The results confirm the rapid spread of the virus and its high mortality in the country.
has issue date	2020-06-26(xsd:dateTime)
bibo:doi	10.1590/1518-8345.4501.3345
bibo:pmid	32609282
has license	cc-by
sha1sum (hex)	7bbe888bd239b2bf12f541c54010ead1b73f8a88
schema:url	https://doi.org/10.1590/1518-8345.4501.3345
resource representing a document's title	Estimation and prediction of COVID-19 cases in Brazilian metropolises
has PubMed Central identifier	PMC7319758
has PubMed identifier	32609282
schema:publication	Revista latino-americana de enfermagem
resource representing a document's body	covid:7bbe888bd239b2bf12f541c54010ead1b73f8a88#body_text
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