About: In this paper, we model the epidemic course of a pathogen infection within a semi-closed group which generates clinical signals which do not necessarily permit its ready and certain identification. Typical examples of such a pathogen are influenza-type viruses. We allow for time-varying infectivity levels among individuals, and model the probability of infection per contact as a function of the clinical signals. In order to accomplish this, we introduce a modified chain-binomial Reed-Frost model. We obtain an expression for the basic reproduction ratio and determine conditions which guarantee that the epidemic does not survive in the long-term. These conditions being functions of the signal’s distribution, they can be used to design and evaluate interventions, such as treatment protocols.   Goto Sponge  NotDistinct  Permalink

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  • In this paper, we model the epidemic course of a pathogen infection within a semi-closed group which generates clinical signals which do not necessarily permit its ready and certain identification. Typical examples of such a pathogen are influenza-type viruses. We allow for time-varying infectivity levels among individuals, and model the probability of infection per contact as a function of the clinical signals. In order to accomplish this, we introduce a modified chain-binomial Reed-Frost model. We obtain an expression for the basic reproduction ratio and determine conditions which guarantee that the epidemic does not survive in the long-term. These conditions being functions of the signal’s distribution, they can be used to design and evaluate interventions, such as treatment protocols.
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  • Virology
  • Epidemics
  • Viruses
  • Epidemiology
  • Infectious diseases
  • Probability
  • Biological hazards
  • Dimensionless numbers
  • Medical terminology
  • 1898 in biology
  • Arab inventions
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