About: Age-stratified model of the COVID-19 epidemic to analyze the impact of relaxing lockdown measures: nowcasting and forecasting for Switzerland

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About: Age-stratified model of the COVID-19 epidemic to analyze the impact of relaxing lockdown measures: nowcasting and forecasting for Switzerland Goto Sponge NotDistinct Permalink

An Entity of Type : schema:ScholarlyArticle, within Data Space : wasabi.inria.fr associated with source document(s)

Attributes	Values
type	Academic Article research paper schema:ScholarlyArticle
isDefinedBy	Covid-on-the-Web dataset
has title	Age-stratified model of the COVID-19 epidemic to analyze the impact of relaxing lockdown measures: nowcasting and forecasting for Switzerland
Creator	Balabdaoui, F Balabdaoui, Fadoua Mohr, D Mohr, Dirk
Source	MedRxiv
abstract	Compartmental models enable the analysis and prediction of an epidemic including the number of infected, hospitalized and deceased individuals in a population. They allow for computational case studies on non-pharmaceutical interventions thereby providing an important basis for policy makers. While research is ongoing on the transmission dynamics of the SARS-CoV-2 coronavirus, it is important to come up with epidemic models that can describe the main stages of the progression of the associated COVID-19 respiratory disease. We propose an age-stratified discrete compartment model as an alternative to differential equation based S-I-R type of models. The model captures the highly age-dependent progression of COVID-19 and is able to describe the day-by-day advancement of an infected individual in a modern health care system. The fully-identified model for Switzerland not only predicts the overall histories of the number of infected, hospitalized and deceased, but also the corresponding age-distributions. The model-based analysis of the outbreak reveals an average infection fatality ratio of 0.4% with a pronounced maximum of 9.5% for those aged [≥]80 years. The predictions for different scenarios of relaxing the soft lockdown indicate a low risk of overloading the hospitals through a second wave of infections. However, there is a hidden risk of a significant increase in the total fatalities (by up to 200%) in case schools reopen with insufficient containment measures in place.
has issue date	2020-05-11(xsd:dateTime)
bibo:doi	10.1101/2020.05.08.20095059
has license	medrxiv
sha1sum (hex)	8ce30909dd1b3075df3ff733c1f5c0dcb89c5d53
schema:url	https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.05.08.20095059
resource representing a document's title	Age-stratified model of the COVID-19 epidemic to analyze the impact of relaxing lockdown measures: nowcasting and forecasting for Switzerland
resource representing a document's body	covid:8ce30909dd1b3075df3ff733c1f5c0dcb89c5d53#body_text
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