About: Sub-epidemic model forecasts for COVID-19 pandemic spread in the USA and European hotspots, February-May 2020

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About: Sub-epidemic model forecasts for COVID-19 pandemic spread in the USA and European hotspots, February-May 2020 Goto Sponge NotDistinct Permalink

An Entity of Type : schema:ScholarlyArticle, within Data Space : wasabi.inria.fr associated with source document(s)

Attributes	Values
type	Academic Article research paper schema:ScholarlyArticle
isDefinedBy	Covid-on-the-Web dataset
has title	Sub-epidemic model forecasts for COVID-19 pandemic spread in the USA and European hotspots, February-May 2020
Creator	Chowell, Gerardo Tariq, Amna Luo, Ruiyan Roosa, Kimberlyn Rothenberg, Richard Hyman, James
Source	MedRxiv
abstract	Mathematical models have been widely used to understand the dynamics of the ongoing coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic as well as to predict future trends and assess intervention strategies. The asynchronicity of infection patterns during this pandemic illustrates the need for models that can capture dynamics beyond a single-peak trajectory to forecast the worldwide spread and for the spread within nations and within other sub-regions at various geographic scales. Here, we demonstrate a five-parameter sub-epidemic wave modeling framework that provides a simple characterization of unfolding trajectories of COVID-19 epidemics that are progressing across the world at different spatial scales. We calibrate the model to daily reported COVID-19 incidence data to generate six sequential weekly forecasts for five European countries and five hotspot states within the United States. The sub-epidemic approach captures the rise to an initial peak followed by a wide range of post-peak behavior, ranging from a typical decline to a steady incidence level to repeated small waves for sub-epidemic outbreaks. We show that the sub-epidemic model outperforms a three-parameter Richards model, in terms of calibration and forecasting performance, and yields excellent short- and intermediate-term forecasts that are not attainable with other single-peak transmission models of similar complexity. Overall, this approach predicts that a relaxation of social distancing measures would result in continuing sub-epidemics and ongoing endemic transmission. We illustrate how this view of the epidemic could help data scientists and policymakers better understand and predict the underlying transmission dynamics of COVID-19, as early detection of potential sub-epidemics can inform model-based decisions for tighter distancing controls.
has issue date	2020-07-04(xsd:dateTime)
bibo:doi	10.1101/2020.07.03.20146159
has license	medrxiv
sha1sum (hex)	90cfe501dbea2ce87eb69d2f8cb59a42e7635864
schema:url	https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.07.03.20146159
resource representing a document's title	Sub-epidemic model forecasts for COVID-19 pandemic spread in the USA and European hotspots, February-May 2020
resource representing a document's body	covid:90cfe501dbea2ce87eb69d2f8cb59a42e7635864#body_text
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