About: COVID-19 Risk Estimation using a Time-varying SIR-model

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An Entity of Type : schema:ScholarlyArticle, within Data Space : wasabi.inria.fr associated with source document(s)

Attributes	Values
type	Academic Article research paper schema:ScholarlyArticle
isDefinedBy	Covid-on-the-Web dataset
has title	COVID-19 Risk Estimation using a Time-varying SIR-model
Creator	Holm, Jeanne Kiamari, Mehrdad Krishnamachari, Bhaskar Nguyen, Quynh Pereira, Eva Ramachandran, Gowri
Source	ArXiv
abstract	Policy-makers require data-driven tools to assess the spread of COVID-19 and inform the public of their risk of infection on an ongoing basis. We propose a rigorous hybrid model-and-data-driven approach to risk scoring based on a time-varying SIR epidemic model that ultimately yields a simplified color-coded risk level for each community. The risk score $/Gamma_t$ that we propose is proportional to the probability of someone currently healthy getting infected in the next 24 hours. We show how this risk score can be estimated using another useful metric of infection spread, $R_t$, the time-varying average reproduction number which indicates the average number of individuals an infected person would infect in turn. The proposed approach also allows for quantification of uncertainty in the estimates of $R_t$ and $/Gamma_t$ in the form of confidence intervals. Code and data from our effort have been open-sourced and are being applied to assess and communicate the risk of infection in the City and County of Los Angeles.
has issue date	2020-08-11(xsd:dateTime)
has license	arxiv
sha1sum (hex)	974945aca8e6015335646cb006a170d91e9cc35f
resource representing a document's title	COVID-19 Risk Estimation using a Time-varying SIR-model
resource representing a document's body	covid:974945aca8e6015335646cb006a170d91e9cc35f#body_text
is schema:about of	named entity 'CODED' named entity 'INFECT' named entity 'DRIVEN' named entity 'BEING' named entity 'TURN' named entity 'CURRENTLY' named entity 'SIR' named entity 'MAKERS' named entity 'AND-' named entity 'RISK' named entity 'SIR' named entity 'USING' named entity 'confidence intervals' named entity 'Policy-makers' named entity 'SIR model' named entity 'COVID-19' named entity 'effective reproduction number' named entity 'COVID-19' named entity 'moving average' named entity 'github.com' named entity 'Confidence Interval' named entity 'probability' named entity 'risk metric' named entity 'covid19' named entity 'Gaussian distributions' named entity 'CSV' named entity 'LA County' named entity 'differential equation' named entity 'open-source software' named entity 'time-variant' named entity 'marginal distribution' named entity 'infection' named entity 'LA County' named entity 'number of new cases' named entity 'SIR model' named entity 'rate parameter' named entity 'probability' named entity 'differential equations' named entity 'probability' named entity 'SIR model' named entity 'City of Los Angeles' named entity 'probability distribution function' named entity 'heatmap' named entity 'confidence Interval' named entity 'SIR model' named entity 'Kermack and McKendrick in 1927' named entity 'public health' named entity 'probability' named entity 'empirical data' named entity 'definite integral' named entity 'County of Los Angeles' named entity 'LA County' named entity 'time-series data' named entity 'json' named entity 'open-source' named entity 'confidence interval' named entity 'probability' named entity 'LA County' named entity 'LA County' named entity 'discrete-time' named entity 'infection' named entity 'effective reproduction number' named entity 'probability' named entity 'infection' named entity 'LA County' named entity 'Python' named entity 'SIR model' named entity 'CoVID-19' named entity 'reproductive number' named entity 'SIR model' named entity 'confidence interval' named entity 'infection' named entity 'effective reproduction number' named entity 'infection' named entity 'COVID-19' named entity 'reproductive number' named entity 'effective reproduction number' named entity 'infection' named entity 'infection' named entity 'risk metric' named entity 'infection' named entity 'effective reproduction number'

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