About: The basic reproductive number (R(0)) is a fundamental measure used to quantify the transmission potential of an epidemic in public health practice. However, R(0) cannot reflect the time-varying nature of an epidemic. A time-varying effective reproductive number R(t) can provide more information because it tracks the subsequent evolution of transmission. However, since it neglects individual-level geographical variations in exposure risk, R(t) may smooth out interpersonal heterogeneous transmission potential, obscure high-risk spreaders, and hence hamper the effectiveness of control measures in spatial dimension. Therefore, this study proposes a new method for quantifying spatially adjusted (time-varying) reproductive numbers that reflects spatial heterogeneity in transmission potential among individuals. This new method estimates individual-level effective reproductive numbers (R(j)) and a summarized indicator for population-level time-varying reproductive number (R(t)). Data from the five most severe dengue outbreaks in southern Taiwan from 1998–2015 were used to demonstrate the ability of the method to highlight early spreaders contributing to the geographic expansion of dengue transmission. Our results show spatial heterogeneity in the transmission potential of dengue among individuals and identify the spreaders with the highest R(j) during the epidemic period. The results also reveal that super-spreaders are usually early spreaders that locate at the edges of the epidemic foci, which means that these cases could be the drivers of the expansion of the outbreak. Therefore, our proposed method depicts a more detailed spatial-temporal dengue transmission process and identifies the significant role of the edges of the epidemic foci, which could be weak spots in disease control and prevention.   Goto Sponge  NotDistinct  Permalink

An Entity of Type : fabio:Abstract, within Data Space : wasabi.inria.fr associated with source document(s)

AttributesValues
type
value
  • The basic reproductive number (R(0)) is a fundamental measure used to quantify the transmission potential of an epidemic in public health practice. However, R(0) cannot reflect the time-varying nature of an epidemic. A time-varying effective reproductive number R(t) can provide more information because it tracks the subsequent evolution of transmission. However, since it neglects individual-level geographical variations in exposure risk, R(t) may smooth out interpersonal heterogeneous transmission potential, obscure high-risk spreaders, and hence hamper the effectiveness of control measures in spatial dimension. Therefore, this study proposes a new method for quantifying spatially adjusted (time-varying) reproductive numbers that reflects spatial heterogeneity in transmission potential among individuals. This new method estimates individual-level effective reproductive numbers (R(j)) and a summarized indicator for population-level time-varying reproductive number (R(t)). Data from the five most severe dengue outbreaks in southern Taiwan from 1998–2015 were used to demonstrate the ability of the method to highlight early spreaders contributing to the geographic expansion of dengue transmission. Our results show spatial heterogeneity in the transmission potential of dengue among individuals and identify the spreaders with the highest R(j) during the epidemic period. The results also reveal that super-spreaders are usually early spreaders that locate at the edges of the epidemic foci, which means that these cases could be the drivers of the expansion of the outbreak. Therefore, our proposed method depicts a more detailed spatial-temporal dengue transmission process and identifies the significant role of the edges of the epidemic foci, which could be weak spots in disease control and prevention.
Subject
  • Zoonoses
  • Epidemics
  • Dengue fever
  • Vaccine-preventable diseases
  • Neglected diseases
  • Pandemics
  • Risk
  • Tropical diseases
  • Biological hazards
  • RTT(full)
  • RTTID
  • States and territories established in 1912
part of
is abstract of
is hasSource of
Faceted Search & Find service v1.13.91 as of Mar 24 2020


Alternative Linked Data Documents: Sponger | ODE     Content Formats:       RDF       ODATA       Microdata      About   
This material is Open Knowledge   W3C Semantic Web Technology [RDF Data]
OpenLink Virtuoso version 07.20.3229 as of Jul 10 2020, on Linux (x86_64-pc-linux-gnu), Single-Server Edition (94 GB total memory)
Data on this page belongs to its respective rights holders.
Virtuoso Faceted Browser Copyright © 2009-2024 OpenLink Software